Summary
Germany warns that Russia is rearming faster than expected, replacing war losses and stockpiling tanks, missiles, and drones.
Putin has redirected Russia’s economy to fuel its military, aided by supplies from Iran and North Korea.
While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.
On the Ukraine front, Russian forces are advancing in south Donetsk, nearing strategic town Pokrovsk, a key supply hub and coal mining center.
Analysts suggest Putin aims to seize land before potential peace talks.
On paper, yes. Will they, though?
Yes.
I’m not sure if people know the history of trilateral defense agreements.
Iirc it was the French and English who put their war on hold to fight the Spanish specifically because of a weird defense pact.
Do you mind if I borrow your crystal ball? You seem unusually certain of things most leading experts would call “very likely.”
It would be weird if experts called it very unlikely, very likely is itself a claim of near certainty.
Good to see you back down from your assertion of certainty.
That’s specifically not what I said, try again.
“Will they?”
“Yes.”
Those are words, yes. They do mean what they say, I’m not sure exactly how that’s confusing to you.
There’s no common ground between someone who thinks “likely” is a synonym for “certain” and someone who doesn’t. The latter isn’t confused.
NATO was specifically created to counter a Russian invasion, so it would be kinda weird if it didn’t do the exact thing it was built for.
No they won’t. They’ll yell and saber rattle. Won’t do anything till it reflects them as history has shown.
I don’t think it would matter because if Lithuania is invaded, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Finland are joining the fight and that’s already a huge war in Europe. Sweden seems ready to defend and if Sweden goes it’s pretty safe to assume Denmark and Norway are going as well.
Then, if Denmark is fighting, the Netherlands are probably going to help and if the Netherlands are at war so it’s Belgium, you see the pattern. So while I don’t think Spain would want to defend Lithuania, they would defend France.