First, what the fuck, but second, how ready is NATO to turn on supposedly one of their own?
Turkey has been threatening to invade Greece since forever. Thats why both countries joined NATO together, at the same time(in 1952). And while there is some confidence regarding article 5, you cant have your country existence depend on “hope”. Thats why recently Greece signed a separate defence agreement with France.
And generally Greece is one of the few NATO countries that consistently spends more than the required NATO 2%. It generally tries to maintain a 1:3 ratio when it comes to Turkey military spending which might not be enough to beat Turkey 1:1 but it is enough to make Turkey think twice about doing anything weird. The issue is that Turkey is 8x bigger and not that poor anymore(while Greece is smaller and poorer than in the past).
I keep getting told that the “magic Article 5 argument isn’t a guarantee of support. There are no requirements to go to war for an ally, just pre-emptive permission to join in. It’s still voluntary, and few are so stupid as to stand against the [Empire!] USA!” (Brackets mine).
All agreements between nations are “voluntary”. You cant force a country to do anything, they are a sovereign state, ie they can do whatever they want. The article 5 has very strongly written language and it is one of the most “mandated” agreements you can have. But ultimately, it is about trust and belief in it.
Thats why Russia’s plan is to erode the belief in article 5 though hybrid warfare(and trump, if you think trump is compromised). Let’s say Russia goes and occupies 500sq meters of a baltic state. Would the US send 10 aircraft carriers and declare war on Russia? Maybe they will and then Russia would go “oups, my bad, didnt notice the map line”. Or maybe they wont. But even the discussion over whether NATO allies would strongly react to such a development, would corrode belief in article 5.
Turkey has been threatening to invade Greece since forever. Thats why both countries joined NATO together, at the same time(in 1952). And while there is some confidence regarding article 5, you cant have your country existence depend on “hope”. Thats why recently Greece signed a separate defence agreement with France.
And generally Greece is one of the few NATO countries that consistently spends more than the required NATO 2%. It generally tries to maintain a 1:3 ratio when it comes to Turkey military spending which might not be enough to beat Turkey 1:1 but it is enough to make Turkey think twice about doing anything weird. The issue is that Turkey is 8x bigger and not that poor anymore(while Greece is smaller and poorer than in the past).
All agreements between nations are “voluntary”. You cant force a country to do anything, they are a sovereign state, ie they can do whatever they want. The article 5 has very strongly written language and it is one of the most “mandated” agreements you can have. But ultimately, it is about trust and belief in it.
Thats why Russia’s plan is to erode the belief in article 5 though hybrid warfare(and trump, if you think trump is compromised). Let’s say Russia goes and occupies 500sq meters of a baltic state. Would the US send 10 aircraft carriers and declare war on Russia? Maybe they will and then Russia would go “oups, my bad, didnt notice the map line”. Or maybe they wont. But even the discussion over whether NATO allies would strongly react to such a development, would corrode belief in article 5.