Asteroid samples fetched by NASA hold not only the pristine building blocks for life but also the salty remains of an ancient water world, scientists reported Wednesday.
The findings provide the strongest evidence yet that asteroids may have planted the seeds of life on Earth and that these ingredients were mingling with water almost right from the start.
The Drake equation is fine. The term that keeps shifting lower and lower is fi = the fraction of planets with life that go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
I don’t agree. If the Drake equation was fine, it would have predictive capacity, which it clearly doesn’t. It doesn’t matter if it makes sense or seems logical, if it doesn’t make predictions, it’s not a good model
I don’t evaluate models based on their ability to be understood by humans. I evaluate them based on their predictive capacity, and in this regard, it’s clear that the Drake equation is lacking.
1/ Fren, the Drake equation was never set out to make predictions. It was to promote discussion and exploration of the topic. It’s never pretended to be what you’re saying it’s not.
2/ Anyway, a model can still be exceedingly useful without making precise predictions. Fuck, Evolutionary Biology doesn’t predict exact outcomes but it does organize our understanding. Drake Equation’s just for framing the search for ETI.
3/ Precision isn’t validity, dude. Heuristic tools aren’t deterministic formula. The thing you’re asking for is impossible and I’d love for you to take that high-falutin’ Vulcan logic of yours and propose a better alternative.
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