Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data
Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances
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I guess it depends of the point of reference. I would say that looks pretty close to Russia.
Impact Risk Corridor: The impact risk corridor for 2024 YR4, which is the region of Earth along which a potential impact could occur, extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia