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Centre-right CDU and CSU parties win election, say exit polls

Germany’s centre-right CDU and CSU parties have won the federal elections with about 28.5 to 29 per cent of the vote according to exit polls, paving the way for CDU leader Friedrich Merz to become chancellor at a time of economic and political upheaval in Europe’s largest democracy.

The far-right Alternative for Germany co-led by Alice Weidel recorded its best result with 19.5 — 20 per cent of the vote on Sunday, according to the preliminary projections by state broadcasters ARD and ZDF. That is double what the anti-immigration party achieved in 2021.

Meanwhile Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party won just 16 to 16.5 per cent of the votes.

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    The main coalition scenarios

    The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, is widely expected to win the election with around 30 per cent of the vote.

    Such a result would be only six percentage points higher than its historically worst performance in 2021. Anything below 30 per cent would be a disappointment for Merz, who has sought to contain the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to win one in five votes on Sunday.

    Merz has expressed willingness to govern with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, while ruling out any coalition with the AfD. However, coalition negotiations could become complicated if smaller parties surpass the 5 per cent vote threshold and enter parliament.

    A more fragmented Bundestag could make a two-party coalition unfeasible, potentially forcing Merz into a three-party alliance — a scenario reminiscent of the dysfunctional coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP).