With an abundance of unknowns, the only gear the central bank really can be in these days is neutral.

Summary

The Federal Reserve remains in a cautious “neutral” stance as it monitors economic uncertainties stemming from Trump’s trade, immigration, and regulatory policies.

Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic and Jerome Powell, emphasize uncertainty’s impact on inflation and employment.

Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, with concerns about persistent price pressures. The Fed is reluctant to adjust interest rates until inflation stabilizes.

Economist Mark Zandi warns of financial risks, particularly a potential bond market sell-off.