The central bank's GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5%.

Summary

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker indicates U.S. GDP may shrink by 1.5% in Q1 2025, reversing from an earlier 2.3% growth estimate.

Weak consumer spending and exports contributed to the downgrade, reflecting broader economic concerns. Inflation-adjusted spending dropped 0.5% in January, and net exports’ contribution fell sharply.

Declining consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and an inverted yield curve signal potential recession risks.

Markets now expect multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025, with an 80% chance of a June reduction, as economic uncertainty weighs on stocks and bonds.