President Donald Trump said he is “strongly considering” issuing large-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia to get a ceasefire and settlement deal on the table to end the war in Ukraine.
In June 2024, Kellogg and Frederick H. Fleitz, who had also served on Trump’s National Security Council staff, presented Trump with a detailed peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.[30] The plan proposes a ceasefire on the current front lines, forcing both Russia and Ukraine into peace talks, and continued military aid to Ukraine if it agrees to a ceasefire and peace talks. If Russia did not also agree to a ceasefire and peace talks, the United States would increase arms supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine would not have to formally cede the occupied and annexed territories to Russia, but would postpone its plans for NATO membership for a longer period of time, and the territories currently under Russian occupation would remain under de facto Russian control. Kellogg and Fleitz said their main concern is that the war has devolved into attrition warfare that could wipe out an entire generation of young men in both countries.[31][32]
In November 2024, President-elect Trump selected Kellogg to be his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.[2]
Michael Kofman’s has been skeptical of Trump’s direction here, has said that he’s likely to have problems getting Russia to go along with anything that isn’t total capitulation for Ukraine, because the Kremlin thinks that it’s going to win this militarily. He’s also pointed out that Ukraine doesn’t have any incentive to go along with something that puts it in a weaker position, which basically anything that Russia would accept, as things stand, would. And the war only stops if both sides feel that they’re better off with it stopping.
The US has a finite amount of leverage here, unless it’s willing to do something like put troops in, which it isn’t willing to do.
EDIT: I also watched an analysis the other day from someone taking the position that Trump really views this in terms of scoring domestic political points — like, he’s the peacemaker president, and Biden is the incompetent war president, which is a theme that he’s been campaigning on. If one agrees with that, he also wants the war ended quickly, which places even more impractical constraints on Rubio and similar.
If we view it through the lens of him actually wanting Putin to win and Zelinsky to lose because of personal insult its even easier. He merely needs a pretext to stop support. Zelinsky can pick between a pretence of peace followed by Russia regrouping and crushing them and total capitulation.
Easiest way is to front load so many demands that they never sit down. The important thing isnt even so much Russia winning as much as getting to snub Z.
His actions being that of an ignorant 4 year old rollin on whatever he was told last makes him easier to comprehend
I also watched an analysis the other day from someone taking the position that Trump really views this in terms of scoring domestic political points — like, he’s the peacemaker president, and Biden is the incompetent war president, which is a theme that he’s been campaigning on. If one agrees with that, he also wants the war ended quickly, which places even more impractical constraints on Rubio and similar.
It is the same logic he used his first term when he made the deal with the Taliban to pull US troops out of Afghanistan. It was never going to work but he thought it looked good. The fact he lost and Biden got stuck with the aftermath was a bonus.
I never understood the criticism of Bidens handling of Afghanistan. He was given an impossible deadline (due to Trump) and followed through with what I imagine is minimal casualties. And at the end of the day, he did what three other president’s coudlnt do, which was get us out of there.
I wouldn’t bet on Trump and Musk being unwilling to put US troops on the ground. Right now they haven’t because it’ll look better if they can negotiate a deal without using force so Trump can brag about how skilled he is at negotiating.
But Trump won’t be able to negotiate a deal because he couldn’t negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag, so I expect us to deploy troops within the next 6 months.
My understanding is that pressure on both Ukraine and Russia was basically part of the Trump administration’s plan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Kellogg
Michael Kofman’s has been skeptical of Trump’s direction here, has said that he’s likely to have problems getting Russia to go along with anything that isn’t total capitulation for Ukraine, because the Kremlin thinks that it’s going to win this militarily. He’s also pointed out that Ukraine doesn’t have any incentive to go along with something that puts it in a weaker position, which basically anything that Russia would accept, as things stand, would. And the war only stops if both sides feel that they’re better off with it stopping.
The US has a finite amount of leverage here, unless it’s willing to do something like put troops in, which it isn’t willing to do.
EDIT: I also watched an analysis the other day from someone taking the position that Trump really views this in terms of scoring domestic political points — like, he’s the peacemaker president, and Biden is the incompetent war president, which is a theme that he’s been campaigning on. If one agrees with that, he also wants the war ended quickly, which places even more impractical constraints on Rubio and similar.
If we view it through the lens of him actually wanting Putin to win and Zelinsky to lose because of personal insult its even easier. He merely needs a pretext to stop support. Zelinsky can pick between a pretence of peace followed by Russia regrouping and crushing them and total capitulation.
Easiest way is to front load so many demands that they never sit down. The important thing isnt even so much Russia winning as much as getting to snub Z.
His actions being that of an ignorant 4 year old rollin on whatever he was told last makes him easier to comprehend
It is the same logic he used his first term when he made the deal with the Taliban to pull US troops out of Afghanistan. It was never going to work but he thought it looked good. The fact he lost and Biden got stuck with the aftermath was a bonus.
I never understood the criticism of Bidens handling of Afghanistan. He was given an impossible deadline (due to Trump) and followed through with what I imagine is minimal casualties. And at the end of the day, he did what three other president’s coudlnt do, which was get us out of there.
It doesn’t make sense because it isn’t supposed to. That is the point.
If Trump had one in 2020 he would have been left with the same situation but his base would have praised him regardless of what he did.
You lost me at “plan”.
He meant a concept of a plan.
I wouldn’t bet on Trump and Musk being unwilling to put US troops on the ground. Right now they haven’t because it’ll look better if they can negotiate a deal without using force so Trump can brag about how skilled he is at negotiating.
But Trump won’t be able to negotiate a deal because he couldn’t negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag, so I expect us to deploy troops within the next 6 months.