I’d bet that Ukraine is banking on Russia not agreeing to the ceasefire. This way they can utilize the US support a little longer while also shopping for alternatives. The US will not be a reliable partner in any case, but it might still be enough to hold on for now.
Even then do you trust trump to actually give aid or intelligence? I’m sure he’ll say yeah I’ll give it to you, but he’ll never deliver. Still it’s about the only play Ukraine. No real downside if Trump agrees and ends up following through.
It depends on how insulated Putin is from reality.
If he’s still surrounds himself with yes-men, he might send their proposal where sun doesn’t shine. But if the quantity of yes-men has dropped since he started the war, then maybe. He might know that their economy is falling apart.
I’m almost sure that the Kremlin still polls Russian people for their opinions via VTSIOM, or at least bothers to read Levada when they publish their polls. Polls say that the public would accept simply stopping the war. What the public would not accept is giving up conquered territories. :(
So any real negotiations where Ukraine will demand its occupied land back, will be harder.
I’d bet that Ukraine is banking on Russia not agreeing to the ceasefire. This way they can utilize the US support a little longer while also shopping for alternatives. The US will not be a reliable partner in any case, but it might still be enough to hold on for now.
Even then do you trust trump to actually give aid or intelligence? I’m sure he’ll say yeah I’ll give it to you, but he’ll never deliver. Still it’s about the only play Ukraine. No real downside if Trump agrees and ends up following through.
This would be a real possibility.
It depends on how insulated Putin is from reality.
If he’s still surrounds himself with yes-men, he might send their proposal where sun doesn’t shine. But if the quantity of yes-men has dropped since he started the war, then maybe. He might know that their economy is falling apart.
I’m almost sure that the Kremlin still polls Russian people for their opinions via VTSIOM, or at least bothers to read Levada when they publish their polls. Polls say that the public would accept simply stopping the war. What the public would not accept is giving up conquered territories. :(
So any real negotiations where Ukraine will demand its occupied land back, will be harder.