EXCLUSIVE: The box office event of the year which has Warner Bros. mass female attraction, Barbie, and Universal’s Christopher Nolan directed, Oppenheimer, has officially fired off its confet…

EXCLUSIVE: The box office event of the year which has Warner Bros. mass female attraction, Barbie, and Universal’s Christopher Nolan directed, Oppenheimer, has officially fired off its confetti guns with the movies seeing respectively an estimated $20M and $9M+ from their previews. Again, these numbers could fluctuate by morning.

Even if Barbie falls short of $20M, she’s bound to post the best previews of this summer; Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 having grossed $17.5M on its Thursday night (which included $400K Imax showtimes on Wednesday). The Greta Gerwig directed feature take on the Mattel doll has previews which will include the Wednesday “Barbie Blowout Parties” at 500 sites as well as money from showtimes which began tonight at 3,400 locations at 3PM.

The R-rated 3-hour Oppenheimer started showtimes today at 5PM. Barbie will play in 4,200 theaters by Friday, while Oppenheimer, juiced by Imax, will count 3,600 theaters.

It’s an understatement to say that projections are bullish. Barbie presales are the best the industry has seen since Avatar: The Way of Water according to the Box Office Company, rivals confident the film will clear $100M-$130M. Ditto for Oppenheimer tipping the scale past $50M+; all-in-all the third time this year the entire weekend should total around $200M for all films. Critics love both films with Barbie at 89% certified fresh and Oppenheimer at 93% certified fresh.

Sizing up Barbie: That preview figure is bigger than other female skewing pics like Beauty and the Beast ($16.3M Thursday, $63.7M Friday and $174.7M 3-day), near Hunger Games ($19.7M Thursday, $67.2M Friday and $152.5M 3-day), and below 2009’s Twilight Saga: New Moon ($26.3M Thursday, $72.7M Friday and $142.8M 3-day.

Oppenheimer decimates the previews of Nolan’s Dunkirk‘s ($5.5M Thursday, $19.7M Friday, $50.5M 3-day), and is in the neighborhood of such fanboys films like Doctor Strange, Eternals, Logan and Shang-Chi. As a very talky adult drama, Oppenheimer is breaking the mold as far as comps go. Dunkirk wasn’t frontloaded, its Thursday repping 28% of Friday. Back out Thursday and Friday grossed $14.2M with Saturday up 23% with $17.5M. The question is whether Oppenheimer follows the path of a fanboy film, like the R-rated Logan which at 2 hours and 17 minutes which had a $9.5M Thursday, $33M Friday and $88.4M 3-day. A fun weekend is in store.

  • ClarkZuckerbergOPEnglish
    1•1 year ago

    Friday Miday: Warner Bros.’ Barbie is eyeing $68M-70M today, including last night’s previews, for what’s shaping up to be the best opening of the year with $150M at 4,243 theaters. That would beat the 3-day of Super Mario Bros‘ $146.3M. Some rivals see higher like $165M-$170M but it’s still early and everyone is getting excited. Remember, female skewing movies are very front-loaded (remember a movie called Twilight?).

    Universal’s Oppenheimer is certainly not getting scraps: It’s headed for $32M today, including previews, and a $75M 3-day at 3,610 theaters. That’s higher than Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny‘s $60.3M start. Wow.

    Do your math, the two titles are fueling $225M alone this weekend.

    So far, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning despite shedding Imax, isn’t taking a horrible hit, -54% in weekend 2 with $25M with a $124.2M running total. Friday is looking like $6.6M.

    Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom at 3,285 is resilient as well with an amazing $20M, -26%, weekend 3 and running total of $124.4M. Disney’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is fifth with an estimated fourth weekend of $7M, -43% and running cume by Sunday of $159.3M.

    UPDATED after Thursday exclusive: Warner Bros has made it official that Barbie has collected the best previews of not only this summer but all of 2023 with $22.3M, which bests Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3‘s $17.5M. It’s a great weekend for the house of Zaslav in the wake of The Flash stumbling last month. All eyes are on the Warner Bros Discovery share price which as of this post is around $13.02 (-0.7%).

    Meanwhile, Universal says Oppenheimer did $10.5M at 3,150 theaters.