Great question! There is a lot of research going into this right now so it’s not a solved issue yet but the easiest strategy is to identify a future climate analog—an area that today closely resembles your future climate, and learn what trees do well in that area.
Make sure to take note of cold hardiness. Since young trees are most sensitive to cold and the future climate isn’t quite here yet, you don’t want to lose your trees to an unusually cold winter, which can still happen at this point.
Another approach is to look at native tree ranges and focus on those that grow in your area but also in hotter and drier climates. Avoid species where you are at or close to the southern extent of their range. This might require more experimentation since not all wild species are suitable for urban environments.
I also expect some great data driven tools to come out on this topic soon—I know Cal Poly is working on one for California but it’s not ready yet.
Thanks for the detailed answer! I’ll have a look. Hard to predict the future here as I’m in the north of the Alps and currently warmed by the gulf stream. But I guess oaks are native here as well as in Italy so they would be a fit. A slow growing one, but beautiful as well.
Gulf stream is a tough issue because of the uncertainty around when it may happen and what its effects will be. Some research I’ve seen suggests the biggest temperature effects will be confined to coastal northern Europe but I’m not sure how certain that is. Hopefully research over the coming years will clarify that issue. In the meantime, two approaches may have merit. Species that tolerate a wide range of environments will be useful. And then on a broader scale, diversity will be important in case some species become unsuitable, others will endure.
Plant things that are right in your zone instead of stuff from a more Northern zone, this way when zones shift they’ll survive longer as they’ll be one zone off.
How do I pick species that can handle the current climate in my region and the predicted one if shit really hits the fan?
Great question! There is a lot of research going into this right now so it’s not a solved issue yet but the easiest strategy is to identify a future climate analog—an area that today closely resembles your future climate, and learn what trees do well in that area.
Make sure to take note of cold hardiness. Since young trees are most sensitive to cold and the future climate isn’t quite here yet, you don’t want to lose your trees to an unusually cold winter, which can still happen at this point.
Another approach is to look at native tree ranges and focus on those that grow in your area but also in hotter and drier climates. Avoid species where you are at or close to the southern extent of their range. This might require more experimentation since not all wild species are suitable for urban environments.
I also expect some great data driven tools to come out on this topic soon—I know Cal Poly is working on one for California but it’s not ready yet.
Thanks for the detailed answer! I’ll have a look. Hard to predict the future here as I’m in the north of the Alps and currently warmed by the gulf stream. But I guess oaks are native here as well as in Italy so they would be a fit. A slow growing one, but beautiful as well.
Gulf stream is a tough issue because of the uncertainty around when it may happen and what its effects will be. Some research I’ve seen suggests the biggest temperature effects will be confined to coastal northern Europe but I’m not sure how certain that is. Hopefully research over the coming years will clarify that issue. In the meantime, two approaches may have merit. Species that tolerate a wide range of environments will be useful. And then on a broader scale, diversity will be important in case some species become unsuitable, others will endure.
Yeah, we’ll see once it happens. I’m not too keen on the outcome of this to be honest.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardiness_zone
Plant things that are right in your zone instead of stuff from a more Northern zone, this way when zones shift they’ll survive longer as they’ll be one zone off.
That’s a good idea, thank you!