In a project update for state lawmakers released Friday, the California High-Speed Rail Authority unveiled the latest ridership and revenue projections for the Central Valley line and several other potential routes. The new data — the project’s first in two years — paints a harsh picture of an unprofitable bullet train, beset by too few riders in the state’s agricultural heartland, and costs for upkeep that would dwarf the money it makes unless it expands.

Authority officials have previously acknowledged that the 171-mile Merced to Bakersfield line would require a subsidy to operate, a point often drowned out in the narrow debate that surrounds the project. Authority CEO Ian Choudri, now one year into the job, seems to be betting that a blunt conversation and new funding strategy — free of government aid — could convince lawmakers to endorse a new direction.

But there’s a potential catch: It only might be feasible if the project is allowed to put the northernmost extension to Merced on hold.

Salvation for high-speed rail apparently lies in Gilroy, the world’s garlic capital, and its potential to connect Silicon Valley to the Central Valley — or even as far south as Palmdale — by 2038.