Assuming neither Redbull driver finishes, who is the most likely driver to win a race? Alonso seems like the obvious choice, but with Mercedes looking strong, who knows?
What would happen if Stroll recovers and wins before Alonso? What sort of meltdown are we looking at?
Looking at the cars that stand a chance (more or less) I think any Aston Martin, Ferrari or Mercedes driver has a change of winning a race. For the rest it basically needs some freak event to deliver another winner.