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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- [email protected]
More US Marines and warships are being deployed to the Middle East, two officials confirmed to CBS News, the BBC’s US partner.
The officials said the reinforcements were to come from an amphibious ready group and its Marine expeditionary unit, with one official adding that the group would be led by the Japan-based USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship.
The unit headed by the USS Tripoli typically consists of around 5,000 sailors and Marines distributed across several warships.
The development comes as Donald Trump said US forces had “totally obliterated” Iranian military infrastructure on Kharg Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipping.
I have more questions: if the US wins what does it win? What is victory? What’s the goal?
This is genuinely the biggest problem facing them right now. Trump has never developed any comprehension of war more complex than “Swing dick, feel big” and he is abysmally bad at long term planning. So they’ve gone into this fight with zero notion of what they want out of it or how to get it.
If it was forcing Iran to negotiate, they’ve just removed any incentive to do so by proving that they will happily use negotiations as a pretext for sneak attacks (and remember, they had a deal with Iran that was working; Trump tore it up).
If it was regime change, they’ve just crushed the credibility of the revolutionary movement that was brewing in Iran. Now public sympathy is entirely with the regime and anyone standing against them is stabbing in the blood of massacred innocents. And the Kurds aren’t going to be much help after the US completely fucked them over.
If it was removing Iran as a military threat in the region, that’s going to take boots on the ground which is clearly something they made zero preparation for. Even if they hastily move forced into place I guarantee any invasion will be rushed and poorly thought out.
If it was destroying Iran’s nuclear program, well, they tried that once already and it didn’t take. So what do they intend to do differently this time?
It’s honestly incredible how much of this problem is not just the bad decision to rush into the fight now, but actually the culmination of so many bad decisions that Trump has made over his two terms in office. You could teach an entire class on geopolitics just by studying every blunder Trump has made in the Middle East.
Thank you for laying out what the possibilities could have been and how the administration has already fumbled.
Can we talk more about the regime change narrative? You seem to say the Iranian people are now supporting the regime. Is it truly because the opposition was literally gunned down earlier in the year? Or is it because the opposition is rallying to the Iranian flag against a common enemy (the US and Israel)?
The news isn’t really talking about that and about why the protests against the regime haven’t started again.
I’m not saying that the people who were angry at the regime have suddenly flipped to being supporters. That’s a rather extreme interpretation of my statements.
But what we are seeing out of Iran is that those ongoing protests have seemingly disappeared entirely. And not as a result of the crackdown. There were ongoing waves of protests even after significant numbers of protesters were killed, and that tracks with what we know about civil unrest more broadly; throughout history the slaughter of dissenters has never been an effective method for ending civil unrest. When regimes do survive mass uprisings, what you’ll invariably find is that it’s because they made sufficient concessions to at least somewhat address the cause of the unrest, even if those concessions come in the wake of, or alongside, a brutal crackdown. But violence alone never works.
And yet, the regime still stands, despite polling from before the war suggesting that 70-90% of Iranians supported regime change to some degree. If there was going to be a civil war, a coup, a mass uprising, surely now would be the time? So what happened?
Well, one, it’s hard to get out in the streets when you’re being bombed. Two, it’s hard to gather a movement against a regime that’s suddenly justified in all of their rhetoric about how they were the only thing defending you against American and Israeli aggression.
On top of that, you have to remember that Iran has a very different media environment from us. For Iranian dissidents, the idea that the US was going to support and assist in a transition of power, perhaps allowing Iran to finally become a welcome member of the international community, was really important. That notion was shattered when the US turned up and just started bombing the hell out of them. Hard to imagine they’re your saviours waiting in the wings when they murder 180 schoolgirls.
What they wanted was a regime change on their terms. A chance to build a new government that would stand for the needs of Iranian people. What they’re now facing, instead, looks like years to decades of American occupation, just like Iraq and Afghanistan. The next in a long line of imperial projects. They wanted freedom and they’re being offered a new form of oppression. So why bother? Why risk your life fighting if the alternative to the government you have is an American boot on your neck and some asshole from Alabama who doesn’t even speak your language gunning you down in the street for going to get groceries. At least the regime kills you for fighting back. Americans will just kill you for looking different.
Here, listen to Iranians tell it in their own words; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/anti-regime-iranians-turn-on-trump-us