New data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Tuesday continued to show weakness in the American jobs market.The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows that the number of new hires in February decreased to 4.8 million, which was roughly 400,000 fewer hires than wer...
One day change in a downward trend.
I mean… maybe?
If you could predict these trends, you’d be fantastically wealthy. But as it stands, I’ve been living through the biggest Bull Run in history going back to 2020. Markets took off like a rocket ship after 2024.
I’d love to believe this is where the gravy train ends. But I don’t doubt Trump’s ability to flood cheap money into the economy and keep the Big Stock Number inflating for a few more years.
You can’t print oil
I can predict the start of a fuel shortage in a few weeks when the last deliveries get to refineries and refineries crater their output to try and avoid running dry. (Shutting down a refinery safely is not exactly a simple process, nor is restarting one from cold.) Fuel prices skyrocket, shortages start, fuel rationing is introduced, it only gets worse from there.
All the knock on effects from oil (and it’s industrially very important byproducts) going stupid… Well, that may trigger a global recession that makes everything before it look like merely a warmup.