Iran is playing an incredibly dangerous game, and one that could so easily backfire. Their move with the MOU admittedly looks okay on paper, but it’s predicated on there being rational actors which have yet to materialize. Trump is actively violating congress’s war powers act with his most recent strikes, and Bibi doesn’t give a fuck because he’s pure evil going to prison if the wars ever stop.
If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to). Maybe it will pay off, but from where I’m sitting it was a huge mistake to tie the US and Israel together instead of playing them off one another like the hateful fuckwits they are. If Iran had instead made the opening of the straight dependent on the behavior of israel alone, and allowed the US to back out of a wildly unpopular war that has effectively no domestic support, they would have left themselves room to engage Israel militarily and give Trump a way to both abandon the US’s allies (our favorite thing to do) and signal some limited victory ahead of the midterms. Trump could just sit back then, letting the media cycle forget about the his involvement as everyone shifts focus to the Iran-Lebanon-Israel-Palestine war.
But instead of this, we get… a dickwaving contest, where everyone is constantly sniping at one another, chipping away at the ceasefire and unable to do anything substantive to get what they want because of a badly thought out agreement that sought to humiliate an imbecile more than it did to actually prevent more deaths.
Trump is actively violating congress’s war powers act with his most recent strikes
The full scale war did not destroy Iran like the USA and Israel though so those strike is just PR , trump pretending to have control of the situation
If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to).
If Israel don’t listen to trump then trump should use his power and impose gradual restrictions on Israel. If he doesn’t do that then he is responsible as the weapons and aid suppliers to Israel . If israel want to continue the war then let them go alone and get a good beating from Iran.
But instead of this, we get… a dickwaving contest, where everyone is constantly sniping at one another, chipping away at the ceasefire and unable to do anything substantive to get what they want because of a badly thought out agreement that sought to humiliate an imbecile more than it did to actually prevent more deaths.
No, we got Iran doing everything to keep control of the straight which is the reason why the usa was forced to sign the mou and to stop the full scale war . Iran is doing everything to limit death by prevent the return of the full scale war
If Israel don’t listen to trump then trump should use his power and impose gradual restrictions on Israel.
I mean… sure, that’s technically an option, but not only does that leave the strait closed for an indeterminate amount of time - which is the absolute worst case for Trump - it allows israel to continue its genocides until it’s own resources and other allies run out. From Trump’s perspective it’s a terrible choice - I can’t really fathom why he or Iran would want this. It seems especially unlikely, since it’s counter to what Trump’s currently doing (is fucking up the MOU so he can restart the war).
Iran is doing everything to limit death by prevent the return of the full scale war
I’m curious why you think their actions are going to prevent the return of full-scale war. That’s a take that to my eye very much does not align with their behavior, as they have consistently risen to every provocation.
The reason why Israel is getting away with genocides is the lack of real restrictions on Israel, not the opposite. Even with USA support, Israel still struggles with Lebanon. That’s why Israel is trying to make the useless Lebanese army take care of Hezbollah.
Iran’s control of the strait is what stopped the full-scale war and why Trump can’t return to it. That’s why the USA is trying to create an alternative route so it can go back to it while Iran shot the tanker to prevent the alternate route and prevent it. No full-scale war means less death.
So I don’t really know what if there’s a good takeaway right now, any way it happens it sure seems like we’re going to be waiting at least a little while longer before an actual ceasefire happens. But hopefully this shows willing between the US and Iran and tensions will ease, and from there Israel will fall in line - though I’m skeptical of Israel adhering to the terms of their agreement with lebanon given they started violating the terms literally moments after they were done signing it, and with how the occupation of Lebanese territory has been prosecuted so as to make rebuilding almost impossible / recapture almost trivial… We’ll see how it plays out.
“To save the MOU, you must be prepared to kill the MOU!”
The MOU can’t be killed because Iran has control of the straight . The USA attempted to create an alternate route that would make Iran has no full control of the straight which would allow trump to return to full scale war .
Despite the framework from Friday (which ew does it gargle trump at the end) Israel has predictably not actually stopped blowing up Lebanon.
Why would they when the usa has imposed not a single restriction on Israel? The usa decided to not use it’s leverage so they are to blame for it
Um. Why exactly can’t the MOU be killed? The strait is a powerful card, but as has already been exhaustively demonstrated it’s not an automatic win button.
And to that, if the US exerted no influence then why did Israel sign an agreement at all? It’s not like Israel has been pushed back with force; they’ve been making steady progress in consolidating their control over the yellow line towards the litani pretty much without pause. Without some degree of outside pressure, there’s no reason for them to have stopped - much as they haven’t stopped demolishing what little is left of palestine.
The strait is a powerful card, but as has already been exhaustively demonstrated it’s not an automatic win button.
I think like I already said multiple time that it stopped the full scale war to continue.
And to that, if the US exerted no influence then why did Israel sign an agreement at all?
If you are talking about the mou between the USA and Iran, they didn’t . If you talk about the deal between usa/lebanon/israel then that deal give Israel the right to response to anything they deal against Israel national security. It is easy to control large part of lebanon what is hard is to destroy Hezbollah and to maintain the occupation for years. That’s why Israel want Lebanon to handle Hezbollah to try to cause another civil war
I think like I already said multiple time that it stopped the full scale war to continue.
I’m not quite sure we’re talking about the same thing, but I’m also not quite sure we’re disagreeing. The pressure from the closure of the strait is for sure a major (although I’d argue that it’s perhaps not in-of-itself the direct majority - it’s closure for sure lost Trump domestic support for the war though) reason Trump balked at continuing the war. But at the same time, the strait was closed for months and for most of that time it had a negligible impact on Trump’s willingness to continue; so while it is a powerful means of pressuring the world economy, it’s not one that couldn’t be bypassed should Trump decide the temporary hardship of a closure during a true commitment of forces outweighs the cost to his ego (and all the other reasons he wants it restarted, but the man is damnably ego-driven).
If you are talking about the mou between the USA and Iran, they didn’t
Yes exactly, it’s an agreement between the US and Iran. That’s the problem with it - it binds Israel without Israel being a party, relying instead on trump’s winning personality and diplomatic skill to enforce the terms instead (you may be able to see why I am concerned).
If you talk about the deal between usa/lebanon/israel then that deal give Israel the right to response to anything they deal against Israel national security.
Yeah, exactly. Israel does this so often I suspect my cat is aware of the pattern - sign a “ceasefire”, use that time to regroup and prepare for the next stage. I assume that’s why they’ve been setting up the occupied Lebanese territory to be so easily recaptured and difficult to fortify for the LAF.
And on top of that, when the Israel/Lebanon deal collapses the US agreement with Iran (theoretically) goes along with it. I don’t see any other reason they would have signed, especially since (as far as can tell) Trump has done nothing to pressure Israel into the deal. There’s no indication that Israel is planning to actually stop, and if they play it right they can drag the US back into the fight right along with them.
You think so?
Iran is playing an incredibly dangerous game, and one that could so easily backfire. Their move with the MOU admittedly looks okay on paper, but it’s predicated on there being rational actors which have yet to materialize. Trump is actively violating congress’s war powers act with his most recent strikes, and Bibi doesn’t give a fuck because he’s
pure evilgoing to prison if the wars ever stop.If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to). Maybe it will pay off, but from where I’m sitting it was a huge mistake to tie the US and Israel together instead of playing them off one another like the hateful fuckwits they are. If Iran had instead made the opening of the straight dependent on the behavior of israel alone, and allowed the US to back out of a wildly unpopular war that has effectively no domestic support, they would have left themselves room to engage Israel militarily and give Trump a way to both abandon the US’s allies (our favorite thing to do) and signal some limited victory ahead of the midterms. Trump could just sit back then, letting the media cycle forget about the his involvement as everyone shifts focus to the Iran-Lebanon-Israel-Palestine war.
But instead of this, we get… a dickwaving contest, where everyone is constantly sniping at one another, chipping away at the ceasefire and unable to do anything substantive to get what they want because of a badly thought out agreement that sought to humiliate an imbecile more than it did to actually prevent more deaths.
If Israel don’t listen to trump then trump should use his power and impose gradual restrictions on Israel. If he doesn’t do that then he is responsible as the weapons and aid suppliers to Israel . If israel want to continue the war then let them go alone and get a good beating from Iran.
No, we got Iran doing everything to keep control of the straight which is the reason why the usa was forced to sign the mou and to stop the full scale war . Iran is doing everything to limit death by prevent the return of the full scale war
I mean… sure, that’s technically an option, but not only does that leave the strait closed for an indeterminate amount of time - which is the absolute worst case for Trump - it allows israel to continue its genocides until it’s own resources and other allies run out. From Trump’s perspective it’s a terrible choice - I can’t really fathom why he or Iran would want this. It seems especially unlikely, since it’s counter to what Trump’s currently doing (is fucking up the MOU so he can restart the war).
I’m curious why you think their actions are going to prevent the return of full-scale war. That’s a take that to my eye very much does not align with their behavior, as they have consistently risen to every provocation.
The reason why Israel is getting away with genocides is the lack of real restrictions on Israel, not the opposite. Even with USA support, Israel still struggles with Lebanon. That’s why Israel is trying to make the useless Lebanese army take care of Hezbollah.
Iran’s control of the strait is what stopped the full-scale war and why Trump can’t return to it. That’s why the USA is trying to create an alternative route so it can go back to it while Iran shot the tanker to prevent the alternate route and prevent it. No full-scale war means less death.
“To save the MOU, you must be prepared to kill the MOU!”
Yeah totally - I’m not clear on how this disagrees with what I said.
Despite the framework from Friday (which ew does it gargle trump at the end) Israel has predictably not actually stopped blowing up lebanon.
So I don’t really know what if there’s a good takeaway right now, any way it happens it sure seems like we’re going to be waiting at least a little while longer before an actual ceasefire happens. But hopefully this shows willing between the US and Iran and tensions will ease, and from there Israel will fall in line - though I’m skeptical of Israel adhering to the terms of their agreement with lebanon given they started violating the terms literally moments after they were done signing it, and with how the occupation of Lebanese territory has been prosecuted so as to make rebuilding almost impossible / recapture almost trivial… We’ll see how it plays out.
The MOU can’t be killed because Iran has control of the straight . The USA attempted to create an alternate route that would make Iran has no full control of the straight which would allow trump to return to full scale war .
Why would they when the usa has imposed not a single restriction on Israel? The usa decided to not use it’s leverage so they are to blame for it
Um. Why exactly can’t the MOU be killed? The strait is a powerful card, but as has already been exhaustively demonstrated it’s not an automatic win button.
And to that, if the US exerted no influence then why did Israel sign an agreement at all? It’s not like Israel has been pushed back with force; they’ve been making steady progress in consolidating their control over the yellow line towards the litani pretty much without pause. Without some degree of outside pressure, there’s no reason for them to have stopped - much as they haven’t stopped demolishing what little is left of palestine.
I think like I already said multiple time that it stopped the full scale war to continue.
If you are talking about the mou between the USA and Iran, they didn’t . If you talk about the deal between usa/lebanon/israel then that deal give Israel the right to response to anything they deal against Israel national security. It is easy to control large part of lebanon what is hard is to destroy Hezbollah and to maintain the occupation for years. That’s why Israel want Lebanon to handle Hezbollah to try to cause another civil war
IDF chief warns of catastrophic manpower shortage
I’m not quite sure we’re talking about the same thing, but I’m also not quite sure we’re disagreeing. The pressure from the closure of the strait is for sure a major (although I’d argue that it’s perhaps not in-of-itself the direct majority - it’s closure for sure lost Trump domestic support for the war though) reason Trump balked at continuing the war. But at the same time, the strait was closed for months and for most of that time it had a negligible impact on Trump’s willingness to continue; so while it is a powerful means of pressuring the world economy, it’s not one that couldn’t be bypassed should Trump decide the temporary hardship of a closure during a true commitment of forces outweighs the cost to his ego (and all the other reasons he wants it restarted, but the man is damnably ego-driven).
Yes exactly, it’s an agreement between the US and Iran. That’s the problem with it - it binds Israel without Israel being a party, relying instead on trump’s winning personality and diplomatic skill to enforce the terms instead (you may be able to see why I am concerned).
Yeah, exactly. Israel does this so often I suspect my cat is aware of the pattern - sign a “ceasefire”, use that time to regroup and prepare for the next stage. I assume that’s why they’ve been setting up the occupied Lebanese territory to be so easily recaptured and difficult to fortify for the LAF.
And on top of that, when the Israel/Lebanon deal collapses the US agreement with Iran (theoretically) goes along with it. I don’t see any other reason they would have signed, especially since (as far as can tell) Trump has done nothing to pressure Israel into the deal. There’s no indication that Israel is planning to actually stop, and if they play it right they can drag the US back into the fight right along with them.