So I believe the impact is real and not negligible like you believe .
Er… That’s not what I said at all. I said that for the majority of the war opening the strait was not Trump’s priority. At the end of the ‘hot’ conflict it became a much more pressing reality as the impact of the closure started to affect trump’s base in the US, and support for the war began to plummet. I agree that should Trump figure out a way to spin the closure, he’ll restart the war in a heartbeat.
You said that Israel signed the MOU which was false.
What? Where did I say that?
I don’t understand why your posed the question of why Israel signed the deal if you already knew the answer
Pretty straightforwardly to highlight their motivations here. Your answer is true but it just glossed over the major point, which is to allow Israel to regroup. I wanted to check and make sure we’re both on the same page.
to pressure it to stop even if they fail which Trump is not doing right now.
That’s been my point the whole time; it might pay off, but they’re banking on Trump doing the rational thing and keeping Israel on a leash. But at the moment, all they’re getting is a transparent Israeli faux-ceasefire with Lebanon.
Er… That’s not what I said at all. I said that for the majority of the war opening the strait was not Trump’s priority
Trump priority was regime change and he though it would be easy so it was a worth thing to disturb the global economy . When he realized that it will not work he was forced to stop the full scale war
What? Where did I say that?
Maybe I misunderstood you and you was talking about the Lebanese government/Israel and USA deal not the MOU
That’s been my point the whole time; it might pay off, but they’re banking on Trump doing the rational thing and keeping Israel on a leash. But at the moment, all they’re getting is a transparent Israeli faux-ceasefire with Lebanon.
If Trump refuses to put real pressure on Israel and the full scale war is back , that’s a choice the U.S. made not something Israel forced on them. The USA has full responsibility for this decision
Trump priority was regime change and he though it would be easy so it was a worth thing to disturb the global economy . When he realized that it will not work he was forced to stop the full scale war
While obviously a bit oversimplified (geopolitics does not lend itself to a two-sentence summary) I quite agree that this was a big part of it.
Maybe I misunderstood you
Yeah I think so - I was indeed referring to the Israel/Lebanon agreement (“framework”), not the MOU.
If Trump refuses to put real pressure on Israel and the full scale war is back , that’s a choice the U.S. made not something Israel forced on them. The USA has full responsibility for this decision
Yes, that’s the problem. As I said earlier, “If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to)”. It’s gambling a great deal on Trump being a rational actor who does not want to go to war.
So, I’m glad you seem to be in agreement with me. That’s nice.
Er… That’s not what I said at all. I said that for the majority of the war opening the strait was not Trump’s priority. At the end of the ‘hot’ conflict it became a much more pressing reality as the impact of the closure started to affect trump’s base in the US, and support for the war began to plummet. I agree that should Trump figure out a way to spin the closure, he’ll restart the war in a heartbeat.
What? Where did I say that?
Pretty straightforwardly to highlight their motivations here. Your answer is true but it just glossed over the major point, which is to allow Israel to regroup. I wanted to check and make sure we’re both on the same page.
That’s been my point the whole time; it might pay off, but they’re banking on Trump doing the rational thing and keeping Israel on a leash. But at the moment, all they’re getting is a transparent Israeli faux-ceasefire with Lebanon.
Trump priority was regime change and he though it would be easy so it was a worth thing to disturb the global economy . When he realized that it will not work he was forced to stop the full scale war
If Trump refuses to put real pressure on Israel and the full scale war is back , that’s a choice the U.S. made not something Israel forced on them. The USA has full responsibility for this decision
While obviously a bit oversimplified (geopolitics does not lend itself to a two-sentence summary) I quite agree that this was a big part of it.
Yeah I think so - I was indeed referring to the Israel/Lebanon agreement (“framework”), not the MOU.
Yes, that’s the problem. As I said earlier, “If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to)”. It’s gambling a great deal on Trump being a rational actor who does not want to go to war.
So, I’m glad you seem to be in agreement with me. That’s nice.