New Mexico officials hope that buying water rights from farmers and shutting off their wells will be enough to comply. But if climate change continues to drive drier conditions in the Rio Grande basin, those initial voluntary measures will likely fall short. The state expects to have 25 percent less water in 50 years because of rising temperatures.

If New Mexico has to make further reductions to water use, the possibility of mandatory water cuts looms over the region. Behind closed doors, major water users, including farmers and the city of Las Cruces, are negotiating contingency plans. The Lower Rio Grande in New Mexico shows how difficult it will be to fairly reduce water use among farmers, industry and residents as the climate gets hotter and drier.

From Hatch to Anthony, New Mexico, farmers are contemplating whether to sell their water rights and turn off their wells permanently. Towns built on agriculture are asking what comes next in a future with more fallow fields. The settlement comes as a hyperscale data center begins construction in the basin, raising further questions about sustainability.