Don’t be so sure. Apparently they publishers don’t make hard numbers publicly available anymore so there’s no good data but there was a survey of denuvo games.
A Denuvo-protected game cracked in the first week after release can expect to make about 20 percent less revenue than if the DRM had remained in place, according to the study, while a crack six weeks after a game’s release only costs an estimated 5 percent of theoretical total revenue. After 12 weeks, new sales are so negligible that “developers could eventually remove unpopular DRM schemes with minimal losses (and possible gains from strongly DRM-averse consumers)
Unfortunately that still doesn’t answer the question but until publishers post honest numbers we’ll never have the proper metrics to measure the actual impact piracy has. But in the day freeware like Doom basically relied entirely on piracy for sales so it’s not an out of pocket take that piracy could benefit sales. It is an old take though. I’m old.
That right there says that piracy hurts gaming. A game with drm cracked in the first week can expect to lose 20% of total revenue. That’s a gigantic loss.
Software sales are heavily front loaded. Releasing with no DRM would absolutely annihilate game sales.
And how much worse would they have sold if they weren’t DRM free? You can’t assert they would have sold better without actual data, and there isn’t any available. But in the case of cyberpunk specifically, made by cdpr, the company behind gog, I can safely say that if they had DRM they would have instantly alienated a significant portion of their fan base.
That’s not exactly what it’s saying. It’s specific to denuvo games which generally means AAA publishers, it’s a small sample size, and it’s about the impact DRM has on sales, not piracy. It’s not an arbitrary distinction. I’ll grant it definitely implies piracy has a net negative effect on sales but that’s not at all what it’s actually saying.
That’s 100% what it’s saying though. If the drm is cracked within a week they lose 20% of their revenue……because of piracy. 20% of total revenue they miss out on because those people pirate the game instead of buying it.
DRM fights against piracy. Without it, piracy runs rampant and costs developers and publishers massive amounts of money.
That’s not how data works. It doesn’t say anything but what it says. You’re making inferences, which sure fair but until there’s data specific to your inferences (there isn’t) you can’t say that. You can say denuvo cracks in the first week in the case of some 90 games resulted in up to a maximum of twenty percent loss of sales. It is an important distinction. And the massive success of DRM free titles also goes against your assertion.
Don’t be so sure. Apparently they publishers don’t make hard numbers publicly available anymore so there’s no good data but there was a survey of denuvo games.
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2024/10/the-true-cost-of-game-piracy-20-percent-of-revenue-according-to-a-new-study/
Unfortunately that still doesn’t answer the question but until publishers post honest numbers we’ll never have the proper metrics to measure the actual impact piracy has. But in the day freeware like Doom basically relied entirely on piracy for sales so it’s not an out of pocket take that piracy could benefit sales. It is an old take though. I’m old.
Edit - Also found this which looks at how piracy can help outside of direct sale conversions: https://jier.org/index.php/journal/article/view/3453/2764
That right there says that piracy hurts gaming. A game with drm cracked in the first week can expect to lose 20% of total revenue. That’s a gigantic loss.
Software sales are heavily front loaded. Releasing with no DRM would absolutely annihilate game sales.
Cyberpunk sold well. Kingdom Come Deliverance sold well. Launching without DRM does not absolutely annihilate sales.
And how much better would they have sold if they weren’t DRM free?
And how much worse would they have sold if they weren’t DRM free? You can’t assert they would have sold better without actual data, and there isn’t any available. But in the case of cyberpunk specifically, made by cdpr, the company behind gog, I can safely say that if they had DRM they would have instantly alienated a significant portion of their fan base.
That’s not exactly what it’s saying. It’s specific to denuvo games which generally means AAA publishers, it’s a small sample size, and it’s about the impact DRM has on sales, not piracy. It’s not an arbitrary distinction. I’ll grant it definitely implies piracy has a net negative effect on sales but that’s not at all what it’s actually saying.
That’s 100% what it’s saying though. If the drm is cracked within a week they lose 20% of their revenue……because of piracy. 20% of total revenue they miss out on because those people pirate the game instead of buying it.
DRM fights against piracy. Without it, piracy runs rampant and costs developers and publishers massive amounts of money.
That’s not how data works. It doesn’t say anything but what it says. You’re making inferences, which sure fair but until there’s data specific to your inferences (there isn’t) you can’t say that. You can say denuvo cracks in the first week in the case of some 90 games resulted in up to a maximum of twenty percent loss of sales. It is an important distinction. And the massive success of DRM free titles also goes against your assertion.