• Russia’s war effort is under growing pressure, with mounting military losses, relentless Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, and attacks damaging nearly 43% of Russia’s refining capacity
• The U.S. and EU are preparing tougher sanctions, targeting Russia’s oil exports, shadow fleet, and major buyers such as China and India, with tariffs and stricter enforcement aimed at squeezing Moscow’s energy revenues.
• Economic strains are intensifying, as Russia faces stagnating growth, shrinking sovereign reserves, a worsening fuel crisis, and the prospect of broader conscription after September elections.

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