Always good to check who did the poll, who commissioned it and what are the significant numbers.
Published on Monday and conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for French broadcasters RTL and M6, the poll predicts Le Pen to win and be at least 16 points ahead of any other candidate.
The poll, which surveyed 1,764 people registered to vote in France aged 18 or over
I don’t know about Toluna Harris Interactive, I can’t judge their seriousness and neutrality. RTL, is a radio with a political alignment to the right.
1764 people answer the poll, when the number of registered voters in France is just shy of 50 millions.
Polls like this are massively utilized as a campaigning tool. They are used as “neutral facts” dictating the outcome of the election, when they rarely are. In the past few major elections in France, countless polls have given RN or Marine LePen as the winners. They still haven’t won.
Let’s not forget that Marine LePen and many of her associates have been found guilty of corruption and stealing 2.8 million Euros from the EU, in 2 separate courts of law. This also has an impact on her voters-base.
1764 people answer the poll, when the number of registered voters in France is just shy of 50 millions
That in itself doesn’t invalidate the poll. There are standard statistical methods for figuring out how many people you need to ask to get a representative sample and it can be a lot less than one might imagine. But whether people were really chosen in an unbiased way is another question. A good survey will publish its methodology.
Always good to check who did the poll, who commissioned it and what are the significant numbers.
I don’t know about Toluna Harris Interactive, I can’t judge their seriousness and neutrality. RTL, is a radio with a political alignment to the right. 1764 people answer the poll, when the number of registered voters in France is just shy of 50 millions.
Polls like this are massively utilized as a campaigning tool. They are used as “neutral facts” dictating the outcome of the election, when they rarely are. In the past few major elections in France, countless polls have given RN or Marine LePen as the winners. They still haven’t won.
Let’s not forget that Marine LePen and many of her associates have been found guilty of corruption and stealing 2.8 million Euros from the EU, in 2 separate courts of law. This also has an impact on her voters-base.
That in itself doesn’t invalidate the poll. There are standard statistical methods for figuring out how many people you need to ask to get a representative sample and it can be a lot less than one might imagine. But whether people were really chosen in an unbiased way is another question. A good survey will publish its methodology.