Indeed, in my argument I simplified the situation. I ignored all the factors. If I checked the age group I’d have a better guess. But, if I don’t look up information my best guess is still 7%.
And, your argument is another simplification. In reality, there’s no way I can predict that 100%. There’s still uncertainty there.
I don’t think I can convince you, though. It’s very rare to change someone’s mind on the web, anyway.
You can’t know if you’re the average person, so you’re right to read the study and think “getting COVID that’s bad enough to hospitalize me is bad, not only for the hospitalization, but now I’m aware there are elevated risks even afterwards!” That’s useful information that can help you make good future choices.
That being said. If you get COVID and are hospitalized, which group in that study you fall into will be due to all your personal health factors, not the study.
Indeed, in my argument I simplified the situation. I ignored all the factors. If I checked the age group I’d have a better guess. But, if I don’t look up information my best guess is still 7%.
And, your argument is another simplification. In reality, there’s no way I can predict that 100%. There’s still uncertainty there.
I don’t think I can convince you, though. It’s very rare to change someone’s mind on the web, anyway.
FWIW, you’re both right.
You can’t know if you’re the average person, so you’re right to read the study and think “getting COVID that’s bad enough to hospitalize me is bad, not only for the hospitalization, but now I’m aware there are elevated risks even afterwards!” That’s useful information that can help you make good future choices.
That being said. If you get COVID and are hospitalized, which group in that study you fall into will be due to all your personal health factors, not the study.