For Scotland to make it through they’ll need to play their top team in 3/4 games, and the Tongan game could be pretty bruising. Conversely I think South Africa can grind out an ugly win against Tonga without too much stress and the potentially physical nature of the game wouldn’t concern them too much.

Ireland will want to use their top team against South Africa & Scotland; and I think the performances from the Maori All Blacks, and NZ A against 2nd string teams suggests there’s at least a bit of a step down from their best team to the next. I think they’ll still comfortably beat Tonga but it could take a similar physical toll as Scotland may take against Tonga.

So I reckon Scotland’s chances come down to the sequencing of the matches. Ireland faces Romania, South Africa, Tonga then the Scotland game. Scotland has South Africa, Tonga, Romania then Ireland. Assuming Scotland don’t get the job done against SA, and then Ireland lose to SA that last game of the pool is going to be huge and I reckon Scotland has the more favourable run in.