The point isn’t that the tech is good now - it isn’t. Wal-Mart didn’t keep their stocking robots. The AI lawyer got in a tremendous amount of legal trouble. AI journalism has been rolled back after quality issues.
But do you think the technology will stay this bad?
Like, remember what phones were like in 2003? People still had landlines. The closest thing to a smartphone was a Blackberry (which came out in 2002). 3G networks were brand-new (and spotty). None of it was very good, yet they got better and better and now here we are 20 years later where smartphones are an indispensable part of daily life for most people.
What will automation look like in 2043? 2053? That’s within our lifetime. What kind of jobs will today’s kindergartners have available to them when they reach their 20s and 30s?
There is nothing to indicate that automation will always be bad forever. There is money to be saved by cutting out the human element and replacing them with robots. It’s looking more and more reasonable to invest in R&D that eliminates human jobs, in every industry - from Uber and DoorDash drivers to semi drivers to tutors to artists to cashiers. It’s coming, and we have to think about how we’re going to support all the people that won’t have a job anymore.
It’s like you didn’t even read the last half of my comment.
Of course it’s not good right now. I admitted as such. I even said the same things you said.
But do you really think capitalism will just sit on its hands and let this stuff stay bad forever? Do you really think this is the apex of this tech? Half your arguments are “well don’t give them your business then”, disregarding the fact that change is already happening on the ground from AI drive-thrus to self-checkouts to the death of concept artists.
It’s like the people saying the Internet was a fad, or people insisting climate change was overblown. Sticking your head in the sand and assuming that “it’ll never be good” is opening yourself up to being blindsided - because what if you’re wrong?
Arrogantly assuming that this stuff will never get better is how we’d wind up with large swaths of the workforce kicked out of their jobs as they get replaced by robots. Assuming the status quo is always going to be the same is what we did with climate change for decades, and now we’re here and fucked.
Could you imagine what would be different if we took climate change seriously in 2002? We’re dealing with the same sort of threat now. We should lobby for protections and legislation like UBI to ensure that the threat can’t come to pass - or if it does, that a broad social safety net can take care of everyone.
You may work in FOSS, but I work in AAA game development as an engineer, primarily C++ - otherwise I have the same qualifications as you.
I cannot talk about what I do but trust me when I say I see this stuff on the horizon from within the capitalistic beast. Things are in motion that I don’t think we can come back from. Execs have dollar signs in their eyes and R&D is full steam ahead.
But let’s say I’m wrong, and for whatever reason all of automation is somehow a dead-end. What’s wrong with having a better safety net? What’s wrong with preparing workers better for large shocks to the economy?
If we prepare and I’m wrong - then at least there’s a net benefit that will stick around next time a large depression or economic shock happens (e.g. COVID). If we don’t prepare and you are wrong, then huge sections of the economy are absolutely fucked.
If people were properly incentived we could easily automate out the fast majority of fast food and retail work. The only reason they haven’t is because minimum wage labor is so ludicrously cheap they don’t need to bother.
The self driving and AI stuff is pretty stupid though.
I’ve been saying this for years now.
Within 20-30 years, most things as we know it will be automated.
White Castle is buying 100 robots that can flip burgers and man fry stations.
Amazon has shown off a cashierless grocery store.
Wal-Mart is deploying tech to identify when stock on a shelf is low and was looking at robot stockers.
Waymo, Uber, etc. are working good progress on self-driving taxis.
Domino’s has a pizza delivery robot they’re working on.
Amazon is deploying its automatic delivery drones.
Russia is actively using self-driving semi trucks in Siberia, and there are multiple startups working on the problem elsewhere.
Journalists are slowly being replaced by AI.
Both WGA and SAG-AFTRA are striking because of the threat that AI will take their jobs in the near term.
There was that dumb AI lawyer thing a little bit ago.
Blizzard is replacing concept artists with AI image generation.
And so on.
The point isn’t that the tech is good now - it isn’t. Wal-Mart didn’t keep their stocking robots. The AI lawyer got in a tremendous amount of legal trouble. AI journalism has been rolled back after quality issues.
But do you think the technology will stay this bad?
Like, remember what phones were like in 2003? People still had landlines. The closest thing to a smartphone was a Blackberry (which came out in 2002). 3G networks were brand-new (and spotty). None of it was very good, yet they got better and better and now here we are 20 years later where smartphones are an indispensable part of daily life for most people.
What will automation look like in 2043? 2053? That’s within our lifetime. What kind of jobs will today’s kindergartners have available to them when they reach their 20s and 30s?
There is nothing to indicate that automation will always be bad forever. There is money to be saved by cutting out the human element and replacing them with robots. It’s looking more and more reasonable to invest in R&D that eliminates human jobs, in every industry - from Uber and DoorDash drivers to semi drivers to tutors to artists to cashiers. It’s coming, and we have to think about how we’re going to support all the people that won’t have a job anymore.
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It’s like you didn’t even read the last half of my comment.
Of course it’s not good right now. I admitted as such. I even said the same things you said.
But do you really think capitalism will just sit on its hands and let this stuff stay bad forever? Do you really think this is the apex of this tech? Half your arguments are “well don’t give them your business then”, disregarding the fact that change is already happening on the ground from AI drive-thrus to self-checkouts to the death of concept artists.
It’s like the people saying the Internet was a fad, or people insisting climate change was overblown. Sticking your head in the sand and assuming that “it’ll never be good” is opening yourself up to being blindsided - because what if you’re wrong?
Arrogantly assuming that this stuff will never get better is how we’d wind up with large swaths of the workforce kicked out of their jobs as they get replaced by robots. Assuming the status quo is always going to be the same is what we did with climate change for decades, and now we’re here and fucked.
Could you imagine what would be different if we took climate change seriously in 2002? We’re dealing with the same sort of threat now. We should lobby for protections and legislation like UBI to ensure that the threat can’t come to pass - or if it does, that a broad social safety net can take care of everyone.
You may work in FOSS, but I work in AAA game development as an engineer, primarily C++ - otherwise I have the same qualifications as you.
I cannot talk about what I do but trust me when I say I see this stuff on the horizon from within the capitalistic beast. Things are in motion that I don’t think we can come back from. Execs have dollar signs in their eyes and R&D is full steam ahead.
But let’s say I’m wrong, and for whatever reason all of automation is somehow a dead-end. What’s wrong with having a better safety net? What’s wrong with preparing workers better for large shocks to the economy?
If we prepare and I’m wrong - then at least there’s a net benefit that will stick around next time a large depression or economic shock happens (e.g. COVID). If we don’t prepare and you are wrong, then huge sections of the economy are absolutely fucked.
Which would you rather have?
deleted by creator
deleted by creator
Ah, yes, the peak argument.
“Here are reasons why you’re wrong”
Glad to see you were here to have a discussion in good faith.
If people were properly incentived we could easily automate out the fast majority of fast food and retail work. The only reason they haven’t is because minimum wage labor is so ludicrously cheap they don’t need to bother.
The self driving and AI stuff is pretty stupid though.