In the big picture, more conflict, more human rights violations, more fascism. While crisis brings people together locally, when the going gets real tough for everyone, tribalism and us vs. them will inevitably rear its ugly head.
Tens of millions of people needing to migrate because the areas they live now will become literally uninhabitable (as in not “it’ll be a little uncomfortable and hot” but “you will die if you stay there”) will be an absolute horrorshow. Genocide, really—I’m fully expecting criminalization of all rescue orgs, “sink on sight” orders for migrant boats and absolute ban on saving any migrant castaway on the Mediterranean.
Your last two predictions are far-fetched in their cynicism. If it gets to that point, the laws will be irrelevant anyway. As it stands today, the migrants are far from the dregs of their own societies. With a bit more enforcement and coordination the boats would stop coming. Presumably the numbers will rise but the genuinely desperate climate refugees of the future will always be going to the first nearby country where they are safe, not halfway round the world to the place with the best economic prospects. Not claiming that any of this is fair, but then the tribalism that you mention is also what makes the cohesion of our societies. People will always resist being overrun from the outside, and that will not make them fascist.
In the big picture, more conflict, more human rights violations, more fascism. While crisis brings people together locally, when the going gets real tough for everyone, tribalism and us vs. them will inevitably rear its ugly head.
Tens of millions of people needing to migrate because the areas they live now will become literally uninhabitable (as in not “it’ll be a little uncomfortable and hot” but “you will die if you stay there”) will be an absolute horrorshow. Genocide, really—I’m fully expecting criminalization of all rescue orgs, “sink on sight” orders for migrant boats and absolute ban on saving any migrant castaway on the Mediterranean.
Your last two predictions are far-fetched in their cynicism. If it gets to that point, the laws will be irrelevant anyway. As it stands today, the migrants are far from the dregs of their own societies. With a bit more enforcement and coordination the boats would stop coming. Presumably the numbers will rise but the genuinely desperate climate refugees of the future will always be going to the first nearby country where they are safe, not halfway round the world to the place with the best economic prospects. Not claiming that any of this is fair, but then the tribalism that you mention is also what makes the cohesion of our societies. People will always resist being overrun from the outside, and that will not make them fascist.