United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that countries must phase out the burning of coal, oil, and gas. He added that the current policies would lead to...
I mean, not that complex after a point. Shit’s getting hotter and more intense and it’s the result of human activity. We can either change the activity or accept that it’ll continue to get hotter and more intense.
How much hotter? What concrete harms will result? How much can that be reduced by different levels of reduction in fossil fuel use? What are the harms from that reduction? How do those harms compare? What are the second order effects and their consequences for all of the above?
Now, let’s step back and accept that nobody actually has reliable answers to most of those questions. Further, nobody actually gets to make global policy choices. Even worse, the people who do make national policy choices don’t seem to make those choices based on collecting the best data and then rationally trying to serve the public interest.
Nether the “humanity will die” and “climate change isn’t real” claims are honest attempts to accurately predict the future. They are strategic attempts to influence public perception in a way that is hoped to lead to specific kinds of policy choice that benefit coalitions of special interests at the expense of most of humanity. Most people would be significantly better off if neither of those buckets of policies were implemented.
I legitimately believe that you’ve prompted chatgpt to craft a response that is vapid and devoid of any particular conviction, and then just cut and pasted that response here.
What’s your basis for making those factual claims about the future behavior of complex systems?
I mean, not that complex after a point. Shit’s getting hotter and more intense and it’s the result of human activity. We can either change the activity or accept that it’ll continue to get hotter and more intense.
How much hotter? What concrete harms will result? How much can that be reduced by different levels of reduction in fossil fuel use? What are the harms from that reduction? How do those harms compare? What are the second order effects and their consequences for all of the above?
Now, let’s step back and accept that nobody actually has reliable answers to most of those questions. Further, nobody actually gets to make global policy choices. Even worse, the people who do make national policy choices don’t seem to make those choices based on collecting the best data and then rationally trying to serve the public interest.
Nether the “humanity will die” and “climate change isn’t real” claims are honest attempts to accurately predict the future. They are strategic attempts to influence public perception in a way that is hoped to lead to specific kinds of policy choice that benefit coalitions of special interests at the expense of most of humanity. Most people would be significantly better off if neither of those buckets of policies were implemented.
I legitimately believe that you’ve prompted chatgpt to craft a response that is vapid and devoid of any particular conviction, and then just cut and pasted that response here.
So what do you suggest we do? Nothing?
I suggest we try to promote real quantitative analyses over kneejerk support for authoritarianism.
That does not answer my question. In fact, it says absolutely nothing at all.
We can’t “prove” or accurately predict anything so l let’s just keep shitting where we eat. Solid logic
The oil companies (at the very least Exxon) knew it decades ago. The only reason there’s a “debate” is to keep the business pumping profits.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64241994