• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin claimed Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which was now in its fifth month since its launch in June, was suffering “massive losses” in an interview with Chinese state media published on Monday. TASS
• Putin said: “They launched an active military operation, the so-called counter-offensive. It has continued since 4 June. No results achieved so far, only massive losses. The losses are simply huge, at a ratio of one to eight.” [Reliable numbers of troops killed are hard to determine and Putin’s claims cannot be independently verified.] TASS
• However, after months of little movement seen in the Russia-Ukraine frontlines and the world’s attention turning to Israel-Palestine, Russian forces quietly launched renewed offensive operations last week — storming Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka and Mariinka in the Donetsk region, while attempting to regain positions near Robotyne on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russia has reportedly made gains near Avdiivka. POLITICO
• Over the weekend, Russia resumed a tactic employed last winter: attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In his nightly address on Sunday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there were disruptions to water and electricity in the Kherson and Donetsk regions, but that service has largely been restored. POLITICO
• On Monday, Russia launched renewed drone and missile attacks. Ukraine’s air force said Russia deployed six missiles and 12 drones — two missiles and 11 drones of which were shot down. Missile strikes were recorded in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Kirovohrad. A total of four civilians were reported injured. Ukrainska Pravda
• Meanwhile, Putin’s comments to Chinese state media came as his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing on Monday for a two-day conference on China’s Belt and Road initiative starting the following day. China’s foreign ministry and the Russian news agency TASS said on Monday that Putin is also set to attend the conference in person. Kyodo News+

Pro-establishment narrative:

• With the attention of world leaders on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Putin has resumed his full-frontal assault on Ukraine. Alongside storming Ukrainian positions, Putin is launching missiles, often targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
  POLITICO

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Ukraine’s counteroffensive has suffered a huge number of losses and failed to make any meaningful gains. Russia is now conducting “active defense,” improving its positions along almost the entire line of contact.
  TASS

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Russia has launched upwards of 50 attacks in Donetsk and Zaprozhzhia in the last 24 hours — all of which were repelled by Ukrainian forces. These unsuccessful attacks resulted in a large number of Russian losses.
  Ukrainska Pravda

Nerd narrative:

• There’s a 1% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)