Please confine all news pertaining to Russia-Ukraine war to this thread exclusively. Any links shared outside of this thread will be subject to removal.
Please confine all news pertaining to Russia-Ukraine war to this thread exclusively. Any links shared outside of this thread will be subject to removal.
Does anyone else think that being seen as weak and capitulating to Prigozhin here is basically a death sentence to Putin?
Doing that has to have just put SO MUCH blood in the water for every internal agency/power-block with aspirations of taking him down and replacing him.
Apparently all you need is 20,000 men and Putin’s defenceless…
My opinion is that this is going to cause chaos.
The fact that Putin didn’t have Wagner immediately atomized on the spot suggests that he wasn’t powerful enough to do so. Not a statement that someone in Putin’s position would want to make, I would think.
Of course we both are speculating without any proof, I am also merely speaking of my gut feeling.
I have been thinking that the rhetoric of saying Putin is weak because Prigozhin was able to momentarily rebel is kind of wishful thinking. I think weak is a pretty strong word.
If Putin is as weak as some of us think he is, Prigozhin would have continued to march towards Moscow already.
At the same time, if Putin is as strong as some of us think he is, his army would have reached Kyiv with a new regime installed already.
Hence the truth should be lying somewhere in between, for now.
I know it’s not something many people want to hear because it isn’t a polarized statement, for example, it’s not as exciting as saying Putin is super strong and can nuke everything, we better bow down to him or Ukraine is super strong and can occupy Moscow tomorrow, let’s give them F-35s.
The reality is war is a boring and extremely slow meat grinder. Sometimes you cannot stop it once it’s started (because deaths can be remembered for a long time) and sometimes you cannot avoid it (forever appeasement is not far from escalating the situation and empowering the bully which is worse off). I can only wish that Ukraine winning the war can prevent the potential China-Taiwan war from happening.
When new weapons arrive on site, I expect things to change. I wish Ukraine get Crimea back.
Clearly, if Prigozhin marched, it’s because he thought it as having a valid chance of success. He left because he was paid what he wanted, be it money or power, etc. Putin, notably capitulated
He did not carpet bomb the fuck, so to speak, out of the traitors. Those threatening his reign. It tells much for those who wish to hear.
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I strongly suspect world leaders would agree that Russia using nukes would be justified according to their nuclear plan. An internal civil war is really the best bet for regime change.
Yes! Putin is not some superduper strongman that controls his country as his public persona pretends. He is the guy that the key leaders of Russia allow to be in charge. The moment he is unable to meet their needs is the moment he is replaced. Those key leaders just saw that Putin came this close 🤏 to losing their power to an unpredictable madman, and Putin let the guy off because that was his only option!
Putin’s days are numbered. He not only left Moscow vulnerable to attack, he gave someone the power to demonstrate it on the world stage. Before Feb 2022, Russia was internationally feared as the world’s second strongest military, and now, the joke is that it’s the second strongest military in Russia. That someone even outed that the whole premise of the invasion of Ukraine was false, that the military is terribly messing it up, and that Russia itself is vulnerable to attack. Those key leaders want to maintain their power, and Putin is not the man to do it anymore.
I think there is nothing Putin can do short of a complete Stalin-like Great Purge to stay alive, and I think that purge is impossible with its international relations as he has made enemies with everyone in the West. Putin is rightfully scared. Prigozhin, whether purposefully or in a oblivious narcissistic rage fit, just sealed the fate of Russia. This will undoubtedly encourage other leaders to take a swing at Putin, which makes him a liability to the key leaders’ power. Either Russia has to embrace a democratic revolution where power is stripped from the oligarchs (very unlikely considering opposition disorganization and the country’s economic contributions to the world stage) or a new more authoritarian leader will step in place to reign in control again. Those are the options, so I forsee life in Russia for the general population getting much worse quickly.
A lot of people are saying that this weakened Putin, put the seed of rebellion in the minds of people, etc. But i disagree. The problem with Russia is that it isnt authoritarian enough. You might think that it is funny that i say this but it is true. The most unstable governments are the ones who havent gone full authoritarian or full democratic. It’s the middle area that is dangerous. With this war, Russia was becoming more and more authoritarian. And now after the coup, the deal will be sealed.
Putin will unify the military and use this coup as an excuse to clamp things down even more. Noone would even be allowed to have any kind of personal military, noone would be allowed to say anything against the government. This was already the case before but now it will be even more. Prigozhin was talking shit for over a year, Putin realizes that it was a mistake to let that happen.
As long as things in Ukraine remain somewhat static(or better for Russia), Putin is safe. If Russia losses Zaporizhia, Putin will be in danger.
PS The failed coup against Erdogan also empowered him and allowed him to consolidate power and purge the opposition.
This video cites a civil war scholar that makes the same argument. Civil war is most likely in countries that are in the middle of democracy and autocracy, also known as an anocracy. The video even mentions Russia at the 10 min mark.
Absolutely. Putin has just lost what was left of his authority.
Pending a purge.
The people he would purge just got told that a purge is coming. The entire world knows that the purge is coming. It’s only way to survive. So, those that would be purged are going to replace him with someone that won’t purge them. Things are going to be wild in the next month or two.
Putin controls oligarchs through his wealth. Prigozhin can’t do that, and both of the two know it. We’ll see who’s really fucked up now. Prigozhin or Luca.
Honestly, I think a lot revolves around whether or not Prigohzin is still alive a week from now.