I agree, the poll is basically guaranteed to be at least somewhat inaccurate, for quite a few different reasons. I’m not looking for concrete answers though, just general vibes is fine.

edit: As huge a proponent of the scientific method as I am, it is by design a very slow, thorough and methodical process, that tries to hone in on very accurate answers.

Geopolitics in the modern world is extraordinarily fast. Everything can change in a single day, and never-before-seen things are always right around the corner now. For this reason, the scientific method, while very useful for understanding current geopolitics at some future date, will never be able to actually participate in it in real time, at any kind of major scale. Nor should it, as speeding it up to do so would add inaccuracy.

History involves science. Geopolitics is an art, and will be until scientific research can be done in minutes and hours instead of days, weeks and months. It’s a technical hurdle.