Except they just don’t. The idea that trans women are going to dominate women’s sports simply has not played out in reality, despite the fact that trans women have been allowed to compete in women’s divisions for many years before these bans.

I don’t know how else to put that. The feared outcome just has not happened, despite regulations being more lax than they are now.

Further proof of this is found, ironically, in the examples brought up by people pushing this fear. It’s the same small handful of trans competitors, most of which did not make any significant impact. If trans women were dominating women’s sports, they would have more, and better, examples.

TERFs have been raging for months over a trans women finishing 6171st in a marathon. People still bring up a specific trans MMA fighter as if she was destroying the competition, when in reality she had a mediocre record, lost to a cis women with a mediocre record, and retired back in 2014. Trans women have been allowed to compete with women in the Olympics since 2004, with looser hormone regulations than those currently in place, yet we saw the first one compete only in 2020 where she didn’t even medal.

The strongest example is one swimmer who was also very strong when she previously competed against men. And people ignore that she still lost to cis women in multiple events. They ignore that her times dropped dramatically after starting HRT.

The fears have not played out in reality.