I guess that depends on what you consider reasonable. I figure if they’re starting with simulations such as this now, it’s reasonable to expect an actual manned mission in maybe 20 years.
Hard to say - There’s still a lot of hazards yet to be accounted for: a lot more radiation exposure, literal poison in the soil, severe weather, safe and affordable supply chain, etc.
I think the radiation exposure might be manageable though, as at least in theory you can shield the habitats.
The showstopper could be the low gravity - we haven’t really done many experiments on low gravity, the Mars Gravity Biosatellite never got built. But if it turns out that Martian gravity is really damaging to human health and thus long-term habitation is not viable then I think we’d have to really rethink our human spaceflight goals as on a planet you don’t even have the option to simulate gravity via the centrifugal force - so it could just be game over for Mars colonisation.
Do we actually intend to send humans to Mars in any reasonable timeframe?
I guess that depends on what you consider reasonable. I figure if they’re starting with simulations such as this now, it’s reasonable to expect an actual manned mission in maybe 20 years.
I thought they’d done simulations like this in the past though. I may have been thinking of the Mars Society ones rather than actual NASA though.
Hard to say - There’s still a lot of hazards yet to be accounted for: a lot more radiation exposure, literal poison in the soil, severe weather, safe and affordable supply chain, etc.
I think the radiation exposure might be manageable though, as at least in theory you can shield the habitats.
The showstopper could be the low gravity - we haven’t really done many experiments on low gravity, the Mars Gravity Biosatellite never got built. But if it turns out that Martian gravity is really damaging to human health and thus long-term habitation is not viable then I think we’d have to really rethink our human spaceflight goals as on a planet you don’t even have the option to simulate gravity via the centrifugal force - so it could just be game over for Mars colonisation.