Will this allow Lukashenko to draw in Wagner troops and give them a base of operations, allowing him to provide some sort of resistance against a hostile military takeover. Some sort of insurance/body guard type deal, since Prigozhin also would not want it to be annexed now he is “safe”?

Shoigu focusing more on Africa will allow him to rotate PMC Patriot in and Wagner out, giving him the ability to become even richer.