UK likely to miss Paris climate targets by wide margin, analysis shows

Exclusive: Under current policies, Britain could fall short of internationally agreed goal of 68% cut in emissions by 2030

What is Cop28 and why does it matter?

Fiona Harvey in Dubai Tue 5 Dec 2023 16.00 GMT Last modified on Tue 5 Dec 2023 16.57 GMT

The UK government is likely to miss its targets under the Paris climate agreement by a wide margin, analysis shows, dealing a devastating blow to Britain’s standing on the international stage.

Under current policies, the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be 59% lower in 2030 than they were in 1990 – but the country’s internationally agreed target is for a 68% reduction by the end of this decade. The gap is likely to leave Britain in breach of these commitments.

The 2030 emissions goal was agreed at Cop26, the UN climate summit hosted by the UK in Glasgow in 2021, and has been reaffirmed at Cop28, taking place in Dubai this week.

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    The UK government is likely to miss its targets under the Paris climate agreement by a wide margin, analysis shows, dealing a devastating blow to Britain’s standing on the international stage.

    Danny Gross, a campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said: “Despite the prime minister’s repeated assurances, the UK’s 2030 climate commitment is seriously off-track – and that gap has grown significantly under Rishi Sunak’s leadership.

    “The fact remains that you can’t approve new fossil fuel projects, max out North Sea oil and gas and roll back vital green policies while staying committed to our climate targets – it’s one road or the other.”

    For developed countries, these updates are expected to be a strengthening – a process agreed in Glasgow known as the “ratchet” under the Paris agreement – unless they are stricken by a natural or economic disaster.

    And yet there’s still time to get things back on course with bold and ambitious leadership that recognises the scale and pace of change required,” he said.“That starts with a fully fledged climate action plan.

    A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “This report is inaccurate and ignores the fact we’ve overdelivered on every target to cut our emissions to date.


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