And you’re not likely to find that kind of polling since polling itself is time and labor intensive, and these pollsters have a finite amount of resources, so they’re not going to devote much of them to these outlier scenarios, especially this early.

If Cheney is still in the discussion in 6 months, you’ll get that polling.

And as much as that source may support my thinking, it’s also very much worth noting nymag’s left bias.

I’m arguing against myself here, but in the interests of being circumspect on the topic, right now it seems like the Democratic tactic is accepting they have an unpopular candidate and weakly united coalition of voters, with the one big commonality among them being that everybody desperately wants someone in the white house not named Donald Trump.

On one hand, this makes their job easy over in Campaign Strategy. Just confirm that Joe Biden is not, in fact, Donald Trump…and then remind everybody of that.

On the other, it means that the only real effective way to sort of “herd the flock” and keep the coalition together is to avoid doing or saying anything that might offend anyone under the tent…and constantly, constantly fear monger the shit out of them with theories and polls and op-eds and anything else they can come up with to A) make sure they don’t forget how awful Trump is, B) remind them that while they may not like Biden, last they checked, he wasn’t Donald Trump, and C) stress how much this election is not in the bag and that just like 2020 they need every single goddamned one of us to get to the polls and vote for Joe Biden, or were going to see another Trump presidency.