I was certainly under the impression that Threads was already dying down or at least reeling from falling user activity. I’m not there so I wouldn’t know.

My general take is that with the kinda fracturing of social media happening right now, the big traditional places like Twitter won’t actually die. It will become like the suburbs and the city. Niche places like this will be the suburbs. But everyone in niche places will still go to the city at least sometimes or pay attention to what happens there for the things that can only happen in the big city. Meanwhile the suburbs will come and go with cycles of interest and disinterest.

The only things that will take down the big city places like Twitter will be other new big cities, especially as a new generation gravitate toward something new and resonant with their culture. Threads, in trying to clone Twitter, I’m betting was always a long bet, because cloning alone isn’t enough to break the inertia that keeps people in a place like Twitter.

If TikTok did something on the other hand, which they might not even need to do anyway, it might be a different story.