Leaders of the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) — which openly calls for the Lone Star State to secede from the United States and become an independent nation again — appear to have surpassed the threshold to put a secession ballot initiative on the 2024 Republican primary ballot this March.Newsweek…
I don’t think all of your analysis is plausible, but I mainly disagree with your first and last points.
It not being legal for a state to secede is not an obstacle. Those same laws stop being applicable when the state stops recognising the sovereignty of the the US.
You should probably compare it to the Basquian independence referendum, where the same illegality applied, but it still prompted the state to take military action and quell any ideas of independence. No civil war, no legal battles, but temporary martial law and a long going political battle to keep them in the state.
You could also compare with the politics in Northern Ireland and Scotland and the efforts made to stabilise and keep the country integrated.
Not being legal means we would immediately be at war. There is no mechanism within our current constitution for a state/entity to legally secede. Texas is unlikely to survive a war with the rest of the US, especially since all current US assets would leave the state.
In practice, secession comes for good reason, and the long term optics and/or diplomatic relations of civil war are very bad.
If the public sentiment of Texas truly was that they feel disenfranchised and disconnected from the US, not even a civil war would keep them in line.
This is the real threat in the Basque and Northern Ireland, not the hundreds of lives lost in a one sided military action, but the divides in society, the armed and executive branches, as well as the growing public dissent over the distaste of oppressing your neighbour.