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  • @CoggyMcFee
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    11 months ago

    I was responding to purely hypothetical odds that someone just made up, in which case things can be as complicated or simple as one wants them to be.

    But even if I were making an actual prediction based on real statistical data, I am not sure why you would think that having an expectation of the approximate distribution of something given what we know about its statistical likelihood is “mistaking statistics for actual reality”.