Well, I’ll confess that I may not be “qualified” but I’ll say from what I’ve seen his analysis is consistent with what I have seen. Judges tend to take it easy on certain things (on top of the likelihood to reoffend, it was also for many their first offense). For a lot of the offenders, the only evidence was that they trespassed and said seditious stuff and was oblivious about assault or anyone having intent to ziptie some congressmen. If an offender had previous offenses, had done assault, had an organizing role, had stuff on their person implying a more violent intent, those folks from what I saw got real prison time.

If you are involved in someone’s random court case, maybe as a jury member, maybe as an extended family member, you are likely to see a fairly restrained judicial response, compared to the statutory maximums which are really intended for the worst of the worst contexts for that particular crime.