Let’s say Trump wins and Europe loses its security guarantee from the US.
Then the EU beefs up its military and coordinate its combined forces and military production up to the point that they are no longer in need of US military assistance in future conflicts.
What will be the ramifications for the US if this was to play out in terms of trade, geo political influence etc.
It’s putin’s wet dream, to break the “Atlanticist” alliance and with it, NATO; to reverse the outcome of the Cold War. I think the ramifications would be too complex to game out with any confidence, other than stating the obvious: the world order would become multipolar (as putin prefers), with power centers in the USA, Europe, China, probably India, probably Russia. I could see US foreign policy shifting from its focus in Europe to the Pacific and intensified efforts to thwart China (which faces a demographic calamity that threatens any long-term potential for hegemony).
In reality, the ties that bind Europe to America (& Canada, Australia, etc.) are more resilient than the damage caused by your trumps, orbans, farages, etc. Rational actors will prevail when the stakes are so high.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
Published in 97
Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States and Canada to fuel instability and separatism against neoliberal globalist Western hegemony, such as, for instance, provoke “Afro-American racists” to create severe backlash against the rotten political state of affairs in the current present day system of the United States and Canada. Russia should “introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics”.[9]