Over 100 children at the school are susceptible to virus.

    • tryptaminev 🇵🇸 🇺🇦 🇪🇺
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      9 months ago

      Is it 97% on the basis that herd immunization makes your exposure unlikely, so that you’d at best be exposed to a single person that could contract it to you?

      Or is it 97% on the basis that you are submerged in an atmosphere full of people sick from measles?

      WHO information on these numbers

      So either it refers to a clinical trial with a defined exposure, or it referes to empircal data that is based on the conditions in the real world, which critically includes the herd immunity.

      Herd immunity is a critical factor and it works exponentially. E.g. from 100% to 95% is less of an issue than from 95% to 90% The critical point for measles is at around 92% to prevent exponential infections. This included the risk for people who are vaccinated

      Measles are among the most contagious diseases. To interpret the graph. Because of the high R rate w.o. immunization, you need 92% immunization rates to have one measle case cause another measle case, e.g. reproduction = 1. You go below and it goes exponential.

      Wikipedia - Herd immunity

    • @saroh
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      9 months ago

      So 89% of children have a 3% risk of catching measles if exposed, that’s 30 children given the article numbers, out of 1100 total children.

      I believe this is called a risk, given you can’t know which children the vaccine won’t work.

      • @afraid_of_zombies
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        39 months ago

        Pretty shitty version of Russian Roulette, and yet both involve getting shot.

    • Gazumi
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      49 months ago

      If nursing a patient with measles, there is a reason why gloves and hand hygine is still required. Medically, we consider the 97% effective as a population average besed upon “usual exposure”. That means 3 in 100 vaccinated children are likely to contract measles this way. If your. local exposure is higher, then there are higher infection rates in that peer group. If you sit next to me for 5 mins you have one risk of exposure. If we are kids in a classroom together for several hours, then the transmission risk is higher. So yes, just like COVID, the higher the proportion of infective people and the longer the contact time the greater the risk of infection and also transmission.

    • @[email protected]
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      18 months ago

      3% risk is really freaking high when there’s lots of virus around you

      3% of the 89% times how many students? That’s a hell of a lot of suffering invaccinated individuals.