When they say, “don’t do x or we will nuke you”, assume they won’t decide to end civilization unless x is “launch nukes” or “destroy Russia”. The only way they will launch nukes if they aren’t facing destruction themselves is if they think they can survive the response.
How do you call a nuclear bluff?
When they say, “don’t do x or we will nuke you”, assume they won’t decide to end civilization unless x is “launch nukes” or “destroy Russia”. The only way they will launch nukes if they aren’t facing destruction themselves is if they think they can survive the response.
You are assuming that the Russian leadership is rational and well informed. I think the war against Ukraine has clearly shown that it’s neither.
Yet Putin hasn’t used any tactical or strategic nukes so far during this war.