Hmm, the real question is whether this is consistent year over year… beating the S&P500 one year doesn’t really indicate anything.
Also there are 535 people in the US congress but only like 30 on these two lists… and not the same 30 both years. How many lost money in those same years?
Assuming you meant “historical”, then these two years of data imply that ~5% of congress members beat the S&P500 per year, and not the same people every year… which seems statistically insignificant.
Thanks! This completly debunks the insider trade myth. You would expect a Gaussian distribution around the mean, which would be a market neutral index. And you get even a slightly to the left shifted Gaussian bell curve.
Yep, people make a big thing out of it and maybe the proportion of them that beat SPY is higher than the proportion of random investors that do it, but there’s no good way to say 🤷
Hmm, the real question is whether this is consistent year over year… beating the S&P500 one year doesn’t really indicate anything.
Also there are 535 people in the US congress but only like 30 on these two lists… and not the same 30 both years. How many lost money in those same years?
The list is much longer if you search for it, that’s
hystericalonly the ones above and close to the same return as SPYAssuming you meant “historical”, then these two years of data imply that ~5% of congress members beat the S&P500 per year, and not the same people every year… which seems statistically insignificant.
I don’t know what happened with my auto correct on that word as I think I meant to say “only” 🤔
Here’s a longer list
And the original source is this website
https://unusualwhales.com/
2021: https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/full
2022: https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/congress-trading-report-2022
2023: https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/congress-trading-report-2023
Thanks! This completly debunks the insider trade myth. You would expect a Gaussian distribution around the mean, which would be a market neutral index. And you get even a slightly to the left shifted Gaussian bell curve.
Ah, well there you go then… 25ish people out of 535?
Again, it’d be worrying if the same people were consistently ahead of the market… but that would also be super obvious.
Yep, people make a big thing out of it and maybe the proportion of them that beat SPY is higher than the proportion of random investors that do it, but there’s no good way to say 🤷