That’s excellent news that younger republicans are more receptive to science - thanks for raising, I’ll check that out.
The scientific consensus should change your mind if you’re on the fence and scientifically literate - unless you’re a climate scientist on the cutting edge of research and know something that 99% of the other climate scientists have got wrong, but haven’t quite finished convincing them! I think it’s because people misjudge the gap in understanding between a layperson and a climate scientist in ways that almost nobody does in other fields, perhaps because we can all look outside, feel weather and notice difference between seasons. You rarely hear of a layperson disagreeing with experts about microprocessor architecture, consumer electronics, space exploration, air travel, medtech like MRI machines, encryption, GPS - because the gap is understood. Unless you have a very accomplished and relevant history, deferring to scientific consensus is the only educated default.
No, I like to think I also wouldn’t have agreed with consensus on homosexuality’s (remember that I don’t agree with consensus on eating animals, so I agree that blindly following a majority isn’t always the smart move.
However, you’ve fallen into two very specific traps - let me explain:
A) Homosexuality isn’t science, it’s morality - and we’ve seen time and time again that the majority of people often fall on the wrong side of history
B) Science is sometimes wrong, yes. However, we don’t know which as lay people are going to be wrong, so it would be as futile as randomly not trusting science on any of the other topics I mentioned (do you think they are doing MRI machines wrong?). On the contrary, anybody can understand and weigh in on moral topics. However, while you can read some pop science articles and listen to opinions about well-studied scientific topics, but you simply don’t have the extensive background to be informed enough to contribute anything but noise, doubt and misinformation to the conversation.
We’re talking at cross purposes. I am absolutely not saying there is no science in the genetics or psychology of homosexuality, I’m saying that opposing the antiquated idea that homosexuality is unacceptable was, and is, a question of morality that requires no science - that anyone can weigh in on. In principle, can you understand where I’m coming from? The difference between a matter of human respect and challenging decades of PhD level research outside of one’s field?
If you’re actually a published climate scientist, then you are absolutely entitled to have your view listened to, but with all due respect, I find it hard to believe that you wouldn’t mention that morsel up until now, as that would be kind of key to this discussion. Given that I’m also a sceptical person (though in a different way perhaps), I feel a little doubtful and suspect this is the point where you tell me that your identity and your published work is conveniently secret - but please, tell me I’m wrong. Even in that (sorry, but unlikely) eventuality, that would entitle you to your view, but the other rational laypeople like me would be better served by assuming the correctness of the current scientific consensus until you make significant enough traction to be able to convince your fellow climate scientists.
Of course morality is important. I would like to think if I had no understanding of psychology, genetics, or any other scientific field, I would still want to weigh in on letting homosexual people live their lives without consequence in times when it was illegal, since wishing punishment upon them for doing no harm to anybody is clearly a question of morality, not science. On most of the things you have said, I understand where you are coming from, but here I simply don’t get it - could you elaborate please? Do you understand my perspective?
If you publish on psychological topics, that’s great, though clearly not relevant to climate science (except, that I’d expect it’d afford you a better-than-most understanding of the scientific method at least).
Where we disagree, is that I think consensus is the gotcha in a discussion about climate change with non-climate scientists - again, in the same way that it is in any other field. If somebody disagreed with expert consensus on any very complicated technical topic, I’d just think they were simple - you said it best - it’s best to stick to your expertise. This doesn’t mean it’s not OK to form opinions on subjective things, less technical things, or to ask questions about technical fields, but deviating from the default on very technical things is just a very long winded way of being most likely wrong. You’ll be right once in a blue moon because experts don’t know everything, but statistically not about the thing you deviated on.
I will concede one important point here - you’re right that my 99.9% figure isn’t very useful at all, since it would indeed include people in the relevant fields, so I’ve overstated my point by a large amount. A more useful number for my point is 97%, which is the proportion of actively publishing climate scientists who understand it to be man-made (https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/). Again, a big enough proportion for people outside of climate science to form a sensible default of “yes, we’re doing it”.
As to whether it being man-made is a useful point of argument (aside from helping to signpost people forming opinions outside of their expertise), we’ll have to agree to disagree - you believe not, I believe it’s important, as it would help us model the outcomes better. For example, if humans weren’t causing it, some may further believe that it is inevitable and thus there may be less point in trying to fix it.
In any case, I’ve enjoyed this so far and no hostility intended - I enjoy talking with people I don’t entirely agree with, as it helps me to either cement or change my opinions - at least those for which I feel qualified to deviate from scientific consensus on ;).
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That’s excellent news that younger republicans are more receptive to science - thanks for raising, I’ll check that out.
The scientific consensus should change your mind if you’re on the fence and scientifically literate - unless you’re a climate scientist on the cutting edge of research and know something that 99% of the other climate scientists have got wrong, but haven’t quite finished convincing them! I think it’s because people misjudge the gap in understanding between a layperson and a climate scientist in ways that almost nobody does in other fields, perhaps because we can all look outside, feel weather and notice difference between seasons. You rarely hear of a layperson disagreeing with experts about microprocessor architecture, consumer electronics, space exploration, air travel, medtech like MRI machines, encryption, GPS - because the gap is understood. Unless you have a very accomplished and relevant history, deferring to scientific consensus is the only educated default.
deleted by creator
No, I like to think I also wouldn’t have agreed with consensus on homosexuality’s (remember that I don’t agree with consensus on eating animals, so I agree that blindly following a majority isn’t always the smart move.
However, you’ve fallen into two very specific traps - let me explain:
A) Homosexuality isn’t science, it’s morality - and we’ve seen time and time again that the majority of people often fall on the wrong side of history
B) Science is sometimes wrong, yes. However, we don’t know which as lay people are going to be wrong, so it would be as futile as randomly not trusting science on any of the other topics I mentioned (do you think they are doing MRI machines wrong?). On the contrary, anybody can understand and weigh in on moral topics. However, while you can read some pop science articles and listen to opinions about well-studied scientific topics, but you simply don’t have the extensive background to be informed enough to contribute anything but noise, doubt and misinformation to the conversation.
deleted by creator
We’re talking at cross purposes. I am absolutely not saying there is no science in the genetics or psychology of homosexuality, I’m saying that opposing the antiquated idea that homosexuality is unacceptable was, and is, a question of morality that requires no science - that anyone can weigh in on. In principle, can you understand where I’m coming from? The difference between a matter of human respect and challenging decades of PhD level research outside of one’s field?
If you’re actually a published climate scientist, then you are absolutely entitled to have your view listened to, but with all due respect, I find it hard to believe that you wouldn’t mention that morsel up until now, as that would be kind of key to this discussion. Given that I’m also a sceptical person (though in a different way perhaps), I feel a little doubtful and suspect this is the point where you tell me that your identity and your published work is conveniently secret - but please, tell me I’m wrong. Even in that (sorry, but unlikely) eventuality, that would entitle you to your view, but the other rational laypeople like me would be better served by assuming the correctness of the current scientific consensus until you make significant enough traction to be able to convince your fellow climate scientists.
deleted by creator
Of course morality is important. I would like to think if I had no understanding of psychology, genetics, or any other scientific field, I would still want to weigh in on letting homosexual people live their lives without consequence in times when it was illegal, since wishing punishment upon them for doing no harm to anybody is clearly a question of morality, not science. On most of the things you have said, I understand where you are coming from, but here I simply don’t get it - could you elaborate please? Do you understand my perspective?
If you publish on psychological topics, that’s great, though clearly not relevant to climate science (except, that I’d expect it’d afford you a better-than-most understanding of the scientific method at least).
Where we disagree, is that I think consensus is the gotcha in a discussion about climate change with non-climate scientists - again, in the same way that it is in any other field. If somebody disagreed with expert consensus on any very complicated technical topic, I’d just think they were simple - you said it best - it’s best to stick to your expertise. This doesn’t mean it’s not OK to form opinions on subjective things, less technical things, or to ask questions about technical fields, but deviating from the default on very technical things is just a very long winded way of being most likely wrong. You’ll be right once in a blue moon because experts don’t know everything, but statistically not about the thing you deviated on.
I will concede one important point here - you’re right that my 99.9% figure isn’t very useful at all, since it would indeed include people in the relevant fields, so I’ve overstated my point by a large amount. A more useful number for my point is 97%, which is the proportion of actively publishing climate scientists who understand it to be man-made (https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/). Again, a big enough proportion for people outside of climate science to form a sensible default of “yes, we’re doing it”.
As to whether it being man-made is a useful point of argument (aside from helping to signpost people forming opinions outside of their expertise), we’ll have to agree to disagree - you believe not, I believe it’s important, as it would help us model the outcomes better. For example, if humans weren’t causing it, some may further believe that it is inevitable and thus there may be less point in trying to fix it.
In any case, I’ve enjoyed this so far and no hostility intended - I enjoy talking with people I don’t entirely agree with, as it helps me to either cement or change my opinions - at least those for which I feel qualified to deviate from scientific consensus on ;).
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Removed by mod