We’re talking at cross purposes. I am absolutely not saying there is no science in the genetics or psychology of homosexuality, I’m saying that opposing the antiquated idea that homosexuality is unacceptable was, and is, a question of morality that requires no science - that anyone can weigh in on. In principle, can you understand where I’m coming from? The difference between a matter of human respect and challenging decades of PhD level research outside of one’s field?
If you’re actually a published climate scientist, then you are absolutely entitled to have your view listened to, but with all due respect, I find it hard to believe that you wouldn’t mention that morsel up until now, as that would be kind of key to this discussion. Given that I’m also a sceptical person (though in a different way perhaps), I feel a little doubtful and suspect this is the point where you tell me that your identity and your published work is conveniently secret - but please, tell me I’m wrong. Even in that (sorry, but unlikely) eventuality, that would entitle you to your view, but the other rational laypeople like me would be better served by assuming the correctness of the current scientific consensus until you make significant enough traction to be able to convince your fellow climate scientists.
You keep bringing up morality when it’s irrelevant. It wasn’t a morality discussion but a mental health discussion. That is why consensus creates group think. When you publish, you tweak the known, and you get accolades.
If you’re actually a published climate scientist
No, I publish on psychological topics. I have several friends who publish on climate change but I do not. I mean I could, right now lots of unqualified people are publishing on the topic but I think it’s best to stick to your expertise.
My main point is that consent is only a guideline. It shouldn’t be the gotcha in a discussion. I don’t deny climate change. I think it is most likely manmade at least in some fashion. According to the study that came up with 99.9% they would include me in that number.
At the end of the day, I don’t think it matters if it is man made or not. That is just a point for people to argue about and do nothing. What is more important is that we focus on changes that hopefully, make a difference. Not doing anything valuable because people want to focus if it’s man made or a natural event ignores that the climate is changing and more rapidly than in the past.
I live in three different states. I can tell you Oregon is much hotter than it used to be. It could be a fluke but it is concerning. Many of my friends don’t have AC, not because they can’t afford it, but historically, it wasn’t ever needed.
Of course morality is important. I would like to think if I had no understanding of psychology, genetics, or any other scientific field, I would still want to weigh in on letting homosexual people live their lives without consequence in times when it was illegal, since wishing punishment upon them for doing no harm to anybody is clearly a question of morality, not science. On most of the things you have said, I understand where you are coming from, but here I simply don’t get it - could you elaborate please? Do you understand my perspective?
If you publish on psychological topics, that’s great, though clearly not relevant to climate science (except, that I’d expect it’d afford you a better-than-most understanding of the scientific method at least).
Where we disagree, is that I think consensus is the gotcha in a discussion about climate change with non-climate scientists - again, in the same way that it is in any other field. If somebody disagreed with expert consensus on any very complicated technical topic, I’d just think they were simple - you said it best - it’s best to stick to your expertise. This doesn’t mean it’s not OK to form opinions on subjective things, less technical things, or to ask questions about technical fields, but deviating from the default on very technical things is just a very long winded way of being most likely wrong. You’ll be right once in a blue moon because experts don’t know everything, but statistically not about the thing you deviated on.
I will concede one important point here - you’re right that my 99.9% figure isn’t very useful at all, since it would indeed include people in the relevant fields, so I’ve overstated my point by a large amount. A more useful number for my point is 97%, which is the proportion of actively publishing climate scientists who understand it to be man-made (https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/). Again, a big enough proportion for people outside of climate science to form a sensible default of “yes, we’re doing it”.
As to whether it being man-made is a useful point of argument (aside from helping to signpost people forming opinions outside of their expertise), we’ll have to agree to disagree - you believe not, I believe it’s important, as it would help us model the outcomes better. For example, if humans weren’t causing it, some may further believe that it is inevitable and thus there may be less point in trying to fix it.
In any case, I’ve enjoyed this so far and no hostility intended - I enjoy talking with people I don’t entirely agree with, as it helps me to either cement or change my opinions - at least those for which I feel qualified to deviate from scientific consensus on ;).
I actively encourage you to read more on the 97% to understand the debate about it.
Where we disagree, is that I think consensus is the gotcha in a discussion about climate change with non-climate scientists - again, in the same way that it is in any other field
It isn’t the gotcha in a good way. It can mean there is an actual agreement, people are worried about being canceled, or it means where the money is. Read the above article, and it will explain that the consensus isn’t what you think it means. Also, I could call myself a climate scientist and publish on the topic. Some people unethically publish on whatever the hot topic is to keep their funding going.
thus there may be less point in trying to fix i
Either way we have to work with the issue. We have to store more water, etc for growing crops, maybe change crops or other things to adapt to the changing world.
I think instead of focusing on carbon fuel is killing everyone; we focus on things like better air, better water, etc. The Greta shit fit has turned people off. We need to focus on the benefits and not focus on taking people’s gas cars away. As the rhetoric has went up, people have tuned out. The one saving grace is I think people are actually noticing it more. It isn’t so much it went up 1.5 degrees. It is summer is so damn hot, I almost died.
That’s an article in Forbes magazine by a guy with a degree in philosophy who rejects climate change in its entirety, and runs a company paid by the Kentucky Coal Association, (indirectly) employees of Alliance Coal, and by other fossil fuel companies.
The article has also aged comically badly: “The warming is a whopping 0.8 degrees over the past 150 years, a warming that has tapered off to essentially nothing in the last decade and a half”.
I think your suggested solutions of focusing on air and water quality are great, though phasing out fossil fuels is a must. They are equivalent to the tobacco industry in this debate in their lobbying for terrible outcomes capacity and will distort reality and ruin our collective futures for profit, and this is where your talent for cynicism is best directed.
I think your suggested solutions of focusing on air and water quality are great, though phasing out fossil fuels is a must
That’s how you get to cleaner air.
The article has also aged comically badly: “The warming is a whopping 0.8 degrees over the past 150 years, a warming that has tapered off to essentially nothing in the last decade and a half”
If you notice several authors the cook cited said he was wrong on their study or view. I get it’s easy dismiss the author because you don’t agree with his statement but trying to say the authors of the studies don’t know their own work is odd rebuttal
I can’t disagree with you there with regards to phasing out fossil fuels being a good path to clean air - plenty we agree on.
I’d encourage reading the rebuttal I linked, as it directly references the people contesting the figures (heading “Confused Contrarians Think they are Included in the 97%”).
I did read the Forbes article and spent some time down some rabbit holes, but it just doesn’t seem a strong case to combat what appears to be a very strong consensus that climate change is man made.
Yes, it’s his own response to explain the criticism. More impartially, I’ve checked out the Wikipedia article too on the consensus, which speaks of the Cook study, but really puts into perspective how weak the criticism is in the face of the absolute epic mass of agreement (again, also bearing in mind that Cook’s is not the only report of its type.
Given the overwhelming isolation of disagreement and the clear conflicts of interest from the fossil fuel industry in promoting the overly sponsored-by-fossil-fuel hacks that generally appear in opinion pieces in outlets looks Forbes and Fox, it really is a big stretch to go against the grain.
We’re talking at cross purposes. I am absolutely not saying there is no science in the genetics or psychology of homosexuality, I’m saying that opposing the antiquated idea that homosexuality is unacceptable was, and is, a question of morality that requires no science - that anyone can weigh in on. In principle, can you understand where I’m coming from? The difference between a matter of human respect and challenging decades of PhD level research outside of one’s field?
If you’re actually a published climate scientist, then you are absolutely entitled to have your view listened to, but with all due respect, I find it hard to believe that you wouldn’t mention that morsel up until now, as that would be kind of key to this discussion. Given that I’m also a sceptical person (though in a different way perhaps), I feel a little doubtful and suspect this is the point where you tell me that your identity and your published work is conveniently secret - but please, tell me I’m wrong. Even in that (sorry, but unlikely) eventuality, that would entitle you to your view, but the other rational laypeople like me would be better served by assuming the correctness of the current scientific consensus until you make significant enough traction to be able to convince your fellow climate scientists.
You keep bringing up morality when it’s irrelevant. It wasn’t a morality discussion but a mental health discussion. That is why consensus creates group think. When you publish, you tweak the known, and you get accolades.
No, I publish on psychological topics. I have several friends who publish on climate change but I do not. I mean I could, right now lots of unqualified people are publishing on the topic but I think it’s best to stick to your expertise.
My main point is that consent is only a guideline. It shouldn’t be the gotcha in a discussion. I don’t deny climate change. I think it is most likely manmade at least in some fashion. According to the study that came up with 99.9% they would include me in that number.
At the end of the day, I don’t think it matters if it is man made or not. That is just a point for people to argue about and do nothing. What is more important is that we focus on changes that hopefully, make a difference. Not doing anything valuable because people want to focus if it’s man made or a natural event ignores that the climate is changing and more rapidly than in the past.
I live in three different states. I can tell you Oregon is much hotter than it used to be. It could be a fluke but it is concerning. Many of my friends don’t have AC, not because they can’t afford it, but historically, it wasn’t ever needed.
Of course morality is important. I would like to think if I had no understanding of psychology, genetics, or any other scientific field, I would still want to weigh in on letting homosexual people live their lives without consequence in times when it was illegal, since wishing punishment upon them for doing no harm to anybody is clearly a question of morality, not science. On most of the things you have said, I understand where you are coming from, but here I simply don’t get it - could you elaborate please? Do you understand my perspective?
If you publish on psychological topics, that’s great, though clearly not relevant to climate science (except, that I’d expect it’d afford you a better-than-most understanding of the scientific method at least).
Where we disagree, is that I think consensus is the gotcha in a discussion about climate change with non-climate scientists - again, in the same way that it is in any other field. If somebody disagreed with expert consensus on any very complicated technical topic, I’d just think they were simple - you said it best - it’s best to stick to your expertise. This doesn’t mean it’s not OK to form opinions on subjective things, less technical things, or to ask questions about technical fields, but deviating from the default on very technical things is just a very long winded way of being most likely wrong. You’ll be right once in a blue moon because experts don’t know everything, but statistically not about the thing you deviated on.
I will concede one important point here - you’re right that my 99.9% figure isn’t very useful at all, since it would indeed include people in the relevant fields, so I’ve overstated my point by a large amount. A more useful number for my point is 97%, which is the proportion of actively publishing climate scientists who understand it to be man-made (https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/). Again, a big enough proportion for people outside of climate science to form a sensible default of “yes, we’re doing it”.
As to whether it being man-made is a useful point of argument (aside from helping to signpost people forming opinions outside of their expertise), we’ll have to agree to disagree - you believe not, I believe it’s important, as it would help us model the outcomes better. For example, if humans weren’t causing it, some may further believe that it is inevitable and thus there may be less point in trying to fix it.
In any case, I’ve enjoyed this so far and no hostility intended - I enjoy talking with people I don’t entirely agree with, as it helps me to either cement or change my opinions - at least those for which I feel qualified to deviate from scientific consensus on ;).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/?sh=6061013b3f9f
I actively encourage you to read more on the 97% to understand the debate about it.
It isn’t the gotcha in a good way. It can mean there is an actual agreement, people are worried about being canceled, or it means where the money is. Read the above article, and it will explain that the consensus isn’t what you think it means. Also, I could call myself a climate scientist and publish on the topic. Some people unethically publish on whatever the hot topic is to keep their funding going.
Either way we have to work with the issue. We have to store more water, etc for growing crops, maybe change crops or other things to adapt to the changing world.
I think instead of focusing on carbon fuel is killing everyone; we focus on things like better air, better water, etc. The Greta shit fit has turned people off. We need to focus on the benefits and not focus on taking people’s gas cars away. As the rhetoric has went up, people have tuned out. The one saving grace is I think people are actually noticing it more. It isn’t so much it went up 1.5 degrees. It is summer is so damn hot, I almost died.
That’s an article in Forbes magazine by a guy with a degree in philosophy who rejects climate change in its entirety, and runs a company paid by the Kentucky Coal Association, (indirectly) employees of Alliance Coal, and by other fossil fuel companies.
The article has also aged comically badly: “The warming is a whopping 0.8 degrees over the past 150 years, a warming that has tapered off to essentially nothing in the last decade and a half”.
Lastly, that article is from 9 years ago. There is a pretty comprehensive rebuttal from the respected scientist who this guy has taken exception to, which I’d suggest reading: https://skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-robust.htm
I think your suggested solutions of focusing on air and water quality are great, though phasing out fossil fuels is a must. They are equivalent to the tobacco industry in this debate in their lobbying for terrible outcomes capacity and will distort reality and ruin our collective futures for profit, and this is where your talent for cynicism is best directed.
That’s how you get to cleaner air.
If you notice several authors the cook cited said he was wrong on their study or view. I get it’s easy dismiss the author because you don’t agree with his statement but trying to say the authors of the studies don’t know their own work is odd rebuttal
I can’t disagree with you there with regards to phasing out fossil fuels being a good path to clean air - plenty we agree on.
I’d encourage reading the rebuttal I linked, as it directly references the people contesting the figures (heading “Confused Contrarians Think they are Included in the 97%”).
I did read the Forbes article and spent some time down some rabbit holes, but it just doesn’t seem a strong case to combat what appears to be a very strong consensus that climate change is man made.
Not so academic, but this xkcd on the subject is brilliant https://xkcd.com/1732/
Isn’t that Cooks own website?
Yes, it’s his own response to explain the criticism. More impartially, I’ve checked out the Wikipedia article too on the consensus, which speaks of the Cook study, but really puts into perspective how weak the criticism is in the face of the absolute epic mass of agreement (again, also bearing in mind that Cook’s is not the only report of its type.
Given the overwhelming isolation of disagreement and the clear conflicts of interest from the fossil fuel industry in promoting the overly sponsored-by-fossil-fuel hacks that generally appear in opinion pieces in outlets looks Forbes and Fox, it really is a big stretch to go against the grain.