The former president’s return would cement a shift in the U.S. as a fact that can no longer be ignored.
This is the moment most of Europe’s leaders hoped they would never see. The date is November 7, 2024, two days after Donald Trump edged out Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election, and already the once-and-future president has announced he will force Ukraine to strike a peace deal with Russia and cede territories the Kremlin has claimed as its own.
Gathered in Budapest for a meeting of the European Political Community, the continent’s leaders stare out over the majestic Danube River with just one thing on their mind: How should they react?
Can they double down in the face of Trump’s opposition and finally give Kyiv whatever it takes, as a group of leaders clustered around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron are arguing? Should they follow Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s lead and welcome Trump’s initiative to bring the conflict to an end? Wouldn’t it be better to work with Washington and help shape the deal, as the German and Italian delegations keep saying? And most importantly, how can the continent’s leaders keep the sharp turn in U.S. foreign policy from driving their countries apart?
Trump’s return to the White House is no sure thing, but the possibility is forcing Europe’s leaders to ponder scenarios like this, and grapple with the questions they entail. And as the U.S. election cycle cranks into a higher gear, officials across the continent are becoming increasingly candid about the implications of a second Trump presidency.
I distinctly remember when that went down. It was certainly jarring at the time, but after that nobody really fucked militarily with the US for the duration of Trump’s presidency. That I can recall. Russia didn’t move an inch, China wasn’t moving on Taiwan, the Middle East was relatively calm. Etc. One asshole had to die to get everyone else in line, that’s a great trade.
Now we’ve got massive conflicts on all those fronts because they perceive the US, POTUS as weak. Inept. And when the US falls from being the global hegemon, who will take its place? China? Russia? None of the alternatives look particularly good.
I will say, this proxy war with Russia just destroying all their resources for cheap has overall been a success. But it makes me sad that men’s lives are essentially being tossed into a meat grinder to make that happen. Lots of men dying on both sides of that conflict, lots of blood & treasure just thrown away. 😔 I hope that war in particular ends soon.
The thing is though it is not only now that the US was perceived as weak, it started during Trump’s time in power. The way Trump plainly kissed Putins feet in deep adoration, and utterly discredited his own forces any way he could, set the tone for the 12 years to follow… Trump being the loser he is only knows to blame others and the way he puts Biden in the spotlight as inept is not doing the US’ reputation any good.
Back then the international “politicians” could see that not only Trump’s 4 years were weak, but Bidens term and the next 4 years after that will be of the same mess with either the republicans destroying Democracy or throwing tantrums and blocking all legislation, regardless who wins the US finds itself in a gridlock of indecisiveness and infighting. (And it’s quite clear it’s all orchestrated by Putin himself … time and time again there’s evidence of strong Russian influence in the US politics and the republicans brush it aside and block investigations with a sheepish smile)
That makes it 12(!!) full years of the US rapidly losing status and power on the world stage.
All in all, Putin knew the US was so predictably incompetent that he could calculate to have 6 years at minimum to wreack as much havoc in Ukraine as he wishes… and we’re only in year 2 of his meat grinder.
It was a timing thing. It happened right as COVID started ramping up and countries (well most at least) focused inwards to try to protect their citizens.
That’s why the US got away with that assassination. People were already dying by the thousands from this new infection, nations reassessed their priorities.