Judge Aileen Cannon has indefinitely postponed Donald Trump’s classified documents trial in Florida, citing significant issues around classified evidence that would need to be worked out before the federal criminal case goes to a jury.
The polls are actually pretty good. There are two problems:
The US is very closely divided when it comes to the Presidential Election. In 2016 the popular vote split was about 2%. In 2020 it was about 4.5%. And most of the polling was right in that range.
People are shit at statistics. Most of the polls will be published with an error margin of 5% or so. For situations where on candidate is ahead 10-20%, this still puts that candidate winning by a comfortable margin. When the poll is showing a race with one person ahead by 2%, that means the poll is also showing that the other candidate winning is well within the expected result.
And unfortunately, people like clean story-lines and news organizations are more than happy to supply them. Journalists looked at the polls in 2016 and confidently proclaimed that Clinton was leading. The reality was that she had a slight lead and Trump winning was well within the normal margin of error. This turned into a rather famous spat on twitter.
Sadly, we’ve been stuck in that situation ever since. In 2020, Biden was a slight favorite, but Trump winning was within the margin of error. Right now, polls show a dead heat and either candidate winning would not be a surprise, if the election were held today. One upshot in this, is that pools this early are not very predictive of the final outcome. They shouldn’t be ignored, but that also shouldn’t be taken as gospel.
So ya, the polls are fine and do a good job of reflecting the actual results of the elections. The problem is idiots that only look at the top-line outcome and don’t look at the actual numbers and see that they are actually saying “it’s close and could go either way.”
It’s not like I disagree with you, but we’re looking at the same thing with different lens. You’re saying things like “science is accurate” which I can agree with. But then you see headlines like “science says vaccines cause autism,” and that’s what I’m talking about.
So, in your own words:
The polls are actually pretty good.
People are shit at statistics.
And unfortunately, people like clean story-lines and news organizations are more than happy to supply them.
We’re not disagreeing.
If I see a report that says “polls show that Biden/Trump/Clinton is winning,” I’ll think “I’ll believe it on election day.”
The polls are actually pretty good. There are two problems:
And unfortunately, people like clean story-lines and news organizations are more than happy to supply them. Journalists looked at the polls in 2016 and confidently proclaimed that Clinton was leading. The reality was that she had a slight lead and Trump winning was well within the normal margin of error. This turned into a rather famous spat on twitter.
Sadly, we’ve been stuck in that situation ever since. In 2020, Biden was a slight favorite, but Trump winning was within the margin of error. Right now, polls show a dead heat and either candidate winning would not be a surprise, if the election were held today. One upshot in this, is that pools this early are not very predictive of the final outcome. They shouldn’t be ignored, but that also shouldn’t be taken as gospel.
So ya, the polls are fine and do a good job of reflecting the actual results of the elections. The problem is idiots that only look at the top-line outcome and don’t look at the actual numbers and see that they are actually saying “it’s close and could go either way.”
It’s not like I disagree with you, but we’re looking at the same thing with different lens. You’re saying things like “science is accurate” which I can agree with. But then you see headlines like “science says vaccines cause autism,” and that’s what I’m talking about.
So, in your own words:
We’re not disagreeing.
If I see a report that says “polls show that Biden/Trump/Clinton is winning,” I’ll think “I’ll believe it on election day.”