Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9439113
“It seems likely that the damage to Russia’s productive capacity from the loss of western technology and key supplies will increase over time,” writes independent economist Roger Bootle.
“Moreover, the medium-term outlook for its supply capacity has been severely dented by the loss of so many soldiers in the Ukraine war – and more importantly, by the exodus of so many well-qualified young people who wished to escape both the Putin regime and the prospect of call-up.”
Absolute copium. Incredible.
The idea that economic effects compound over time isn’t copium, though.
If you lose 1 or 2% of your expected economic growth in a year, it’s not too bad. Over the course of 10, 15, 20, 30 years, though? That’s a lot of lost money that’s going to cause quite a few systemic problems.
But if your point is that not enough economic damage has been caused to Russia, then on that I agree. Fuck any company still trading with them. The EU is the world’s largest single market, they have clout, it’s about time they start using it more.
More importantly if you lose the ability to buy something for a month that isn’t so bad since most things you bought before will probably last another month, but if you lose it for two years we have a different story.
The idea that economic growth being slightly slower than it otherwise would’ve been is a great tragedy seems like a typical economist’s fiction. It tells us very little about whether or not they’ll be able to keep on manufacturing artillery shells. So long as the world is eager to buy Russian oil and gas it’s hard to imagine they won’t have sufficient money to keep up the killing.
That they’re losing so many people seems more likely to prove unsustainable first. Perhaps they’ll eventually run out of young men who can be coerced into aiming the guns they’re given in the intended direction.
