- cross-posted to:
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- microblogmemes
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- microblogmemes
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I disagree, I see the rich’s approach to AI as a prayer for a way to beat unpredictability.
The degree to which they fantasize about being able to quantify previously unsolvable problems makes it pretty clear that the end game is AI stock trading.
They want to be able to leave the game, really end the game, to consolidate all trading power into their hands, and in doing so, consolidate the absolute power to pick winners, because once everyone knows you have a winner finding AI, they’ll assume any trade you make will be based on that AI, and ergo, guaranteed to return big.
The hunt for a 100% predictable investment system based on computers has been going on since atleast the 90s, and has never worked long term:
No but frankly there shouldn’t even be the legality to try and pursue it. On the remote chance someone actually creates a working model that beats average performance, it more or less destroys the uncertainty on which the current economic order stands, and in this case, not in a good way.
We’d transition instantly from financial oligarchy to financial dictatorship.
Say that a model like that would be possible to create, it won’t be created in a vaccuum, other companies would invest billions into new models trying to compete with this new model, creating a new kind of market, needing new tactics that the super model probably can’t deal with as well.
The stock market is a completely irrational market, look at GameStop, the stock became crazy overvalued and bore little resemblance to the actual company value.
In this irrational marketplace you can’t rationolize it with models and expect them to work long term, the market can shift in an instant in ways that computer’s can’t predict just as other changes are changes that humans can’t predict, I doubt there will ever be a super model that can do it all for any kind of extended time
A mathematical model can’t predict stock due to irratic behaviour as you have said. AI being fed tons of data though, perhaps earlier than the general public through insider programs, could definitely beat the average trader. Still, this would just be the rich leveraging unfair advantages they already have in a more efficient manner.
