It will be a low turn out election. So honest.y do not under estimate the tories ability to pull a rabbit out. Low turn out is to their advantage.
Just remember under FPTP refusing to vote for the lesser of two evils. Is a vote for the greater.
Also watch local polling. This election changes many tory safe seats. But also seems to be predicting changes in the most likely party to win against tories. So keep an eye on the numbers in your constituency. So you can choose the lesser evil most likely to lose a tory a seat.
I’m in NI specifically Lagan Valley which will probably put dup in again also I can’t even fucking vote labour here. My vote will count for fuck all. I wish people in mainland UK would remember that the scots and norn Irish don’t fucking vote Tory.
Who do you plan to vote for, if you don’t mind my asking?
No one. Dup has a stronghold in lagan valley. Plus no matter who is elected as an mp from Northern Ireland usually makes fuck all of a difference to parliamentary arithmetic. Also we don’t have many questions on pmqs and I support a united Ireland so I disagree with sending people to London anyway. If I was voting for a representative in the Dail then that would be different.
What makes you think it will be low turnout?
Lack of enthusiasm. To many voters not inspired by any party.
Oh and polling is predicting it.
Would have thought though that if any voting bloc would be apathetic, it’d be the Tory voters.
Left wing voters with no one representing there views. Can get pissed of as well.
Fptp is far from a motivating system. Some of voters really do not think starmer will be any better.
I personally tend to be anything but the tories. But many in the UK are less political and do not see starmer as anything but another living politician.
Yeah, good points. I think it will be a differential turnout and it will be low overall… but only because the right wing voters stay at home, while the centre and left come out in force to administer a kicking to the Tories. I.e., even a higher turnout won’t save the Tories, because it’s not the left that have the enthusiasm problem. It’s just negative enthusiasm.
It probably does matter because, in 1997, everyone was fired up and not only enthusatic to get the Tories out but to get Labour in. Now it’s just the former. Don’t underestimate spite though.
In '97, Blair was unusually popular but people weren’t enthusiastic about Labour, which is what the article’s about!
What’s the point of this comparison? Starmer’s government isn’t going to be like Blair’s, Blair inherited a good economy. Is the point that we shouldn’t bother with policies because the only way to get elected is for the sitting government to become unpopular?
Not at all. The point is to ask whether or not it matters if there’s little enthusiasm for Labour and to make a historical comparison suggesting that it doesn’t. Nothing about policy at all!
The point is to ask whether or not it matters if there’s little enthusiasm for Labour and to make a historical comparison suggesting that it doesn’t.
Again, what conclusion are we suppose to draw from this? Because the one I draw to is that the political platform doesn’t matter, that the reason Miliband and Corbyn failed to unseat the Conservatives is not because of any policy or political failings, but because they weren’t against a sufficiently unpopular government.
Miliband or Corbyn would have won if they’d made their party more popular than the unpopular governments they faced, as Blair did and Starmer seems to have done, but they didn’t. Had they made themselves relatively popular (less unpopular), they wouldn’t have needed a great deal of enthusiasm to also win.
labour might win but it won’t be a landslide; people overlook the fact that a lot of people say one thing to pollsters and then vote another way in the polling booth.
it’ll either be a hung parliament or a slim majority.
and if labour does get into power, what happens then when all the tories that did vote for them go back to the tories now that they’re not in power and starmer purged all the labour voters from the party?
people overlook the fact that a lot of people say one thing to pollsters and then vote another way in the polling booth
Pollsters don’t overlook that, they specifically take it into account! If that was happening we’d be seeing it in actual election results (like the locals and the by-elections) or through discrepancies in other questions in the polls (like ‘Who you trust on the economy?’ Or ‘Who is the best leader?’).
It’s not true that Starmer has purged the Labour voters. The overwhelming majority of people who voted Labour in 2019 are still planning to vote Labour. Most of the 2019 Tory voters who Starmer has won back voted Labour in 2017 and before. Maybe they’ll stick with Labour, maybe not. Frankly, that’s a problem for the next election.
