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- cross-posted to:
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Netanyahu is under pressure to keep his coalition government intact. Two far-right partners have threatened to bolt in protest at any deal they deem to spare Hamas. A centrist partner, ex-general Benny Gantz, wants the deal considered. Hamas has provisionally welcomed the Biden initiative.
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I said this in a thread in World News- what will be interesting domestically now is whether or not this gives Biden a boost in the polls. It may be too late.
Anyway, I hope this ceasefire sticks.
I think it’s not too late. We have lots of time before the election. I think anyone who can make peace in the Middle East, even if it’s just walking things back to a previous stalemate, has a hell of a foreign policy win.
That being said, a reset to where things were before does little for the Palestinian people as regards the original cause of this violence, and I wonder whether they will be largely forgotten or if they will continue to be important to American politics the way Ukraine has.
I certainly hope you’re right. I just don’t know how many people abandoned Biden over the U.S. response to Israel so far will come back.
If the ceasefire sticks through the election it will overshadow his prior complicit funding for most of those people who wanted a long term solution.
I sincerely hope you’re right.
The electorate has short memories. Normally, I hate it. It’s why I predicted Biden wouldn’t do anything about marijuana until closer to the election (I was right!). But in this case, maybe that short memory will be a good thing lol. I think it’ll work if he can succeed and Israel doesn’t fuck it up (or Hamas, but it’s more likely to be Israel that is the problem since Hamas already agreed to a previous ceasefire that Israel rejected).
I am a very vocal critic of Biden for supporting the Palestinian genocide.
I have railed on him in thread after thread for enabling the slaughter of Palestinians.
I am one single person but I want to vote for Biden, this genocide is just a red line for me.
I can really only speak for the left but mark my words if Biden genuinely stops this genocide (or starts taking meaningful action to stop it) the vast majority of those voters will come back because this isn’t about rejecting Biden (have y’all even been paying attention to leftists organizing around voting “uncommitted” in the primaries as a thoughtful way to mitigate splitting the party?), this is about rejecting neoliberalism’s stranglehold over the democratic party and the absolutely horrific consequences that happen when we don’t do the work to reject the intellectually suffocating and ideologically lazy environment created by neoliberalism and centrism (that inevitably plays directly into the hands of fascists as history has shown over and over again).
Barely anybody on the left who has indicated they don’t want to vote for Biden because of his appalling lack of desire to stop the genocide of the Palestinians is going to react to Biden genuinely creating a ceasefire by not changing their position and supporting Biden over Trump. Leftists understand just as well as centrists that Trump will be worse.
What centrists can’t wrap their mind around is that if we don’t fight existentially for Palestinians now than Gaza will be considered a successful prototype by rightwing fascist western parties/governments all over the world and we will see this kind of violence become the new world order. We need to stamp this shit out now, and many of us on the left feel that the only effective leverage point is setting Biden’s ego for desiring to win the presidency as an old piece of shit against his loyalty to Israel (along with most of the Republican and Democratic parties).
Is Biden directly complicit in the mass murder of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians no matter if he stops the genocide today? Of course, and he will always deserve the jeering insult “Genocide Joe” for it as a tiny penance to pay. However like the rest of y’all I understand that all US presidents are mass murderers. George Bush directly caused 1 million Iraqi citizens to die…. for what? How fucked up is it the way Obama escalated highly illegal unilateral drone strikes completely hidden from the scrutiny of the US public?
I don’t need Biden to be a good person I agree with to vote for him, I need him to come back over what is a very very very reasonable red line.
I respect your position, but there is a reason in airplanes you’re instructed to put your own mask on in case of an emergency before assisting others. I feel for the Palestinian people, but a fascist America is so much worse - both for me personally and the world at large and especially for my children.
An America lost to fascism is liable to eventually engulf the world in genocide and fire.
I don’t think you understand, this moment, this slaughter of Palestinians, it is the announcement of a new world order for the western world. A new era of western governments turning inwards and enacting massive amounts of violence towards their own people.
There is only one correct response to that, and it is to treat it as a red line. Failing to do so is catastrophic. Letting Biden win without having to deal with this is incredibly dangerous and is a classic liberal/centrist perspective of appeasing the forces of fascism until it is too late.
Quick question for you. What do you think tRump will do if he wins? You sound like a troll. You bring up Obama with drone strikes even though what was it, eight months in on tRumps presidency he already surpassed Obaman’s kills with drone strikes. Don’t have to answer that, we already know what you’re going to say, just answer this one, you a bot or troll?
Nowhere did I say I like Trump, Trump is a fascist, that isn’t hyperbole or shrill lefty talk,bit is just just brand at this point.
Biden needs to stop the Palestinian genocide so that Trump doesn’t win.
I don’t feel like this makes me a troll, maybe you disagree with me. Fine. My intentions are not disingenuous however, I want the least amount of harm to come to all humans and animals however best that may be. In my opinion, that means putting all our chips on the table now and making it clear that no matter what Trump does, Biden has no path to the presidency if he directly backs an ongoing genocide with US weapons against the majority will of the US public (by a sizable margin).
This genocide thing. What the fuck do you think tRump will do? Blaming Biden is honestly one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. It’s just a troll move to blame him. You think people will vote for tRump because of this??? BULLSHIT, tRump will be much worse, as he’s already said he would be. That’s troll shit. Do you blame gun manufacturers or gun sellers for gun murders? No, you blame the fucking people shooting the guns. At least Biden is trying to get them to call for a cease fire.
What centrists can’t wrap their mind around is that if we don’t fight existentially for Palestinians now than Gaza will be considered a successful prototype by rightwing fascist western parties/governments all over the world and we will see this kind of violence become the new world order.
Gaza isn’t the prototype. In my mind that would be Xinjiang, and the “reeducation” of the Uighur community. The next example would be Ukraine (Crimea first, then Luhansk and Donetsk, and finally the whole country in 2022). Gaza is third at best.
Ukraine is a war, it is modern imperialism, an army invades a country and an another army fights to repel the invasion.
Gaza is a genocide.
Apples and oranges though both are horrendous.
If you think the Palestinian Genocide in Gaza is a war you need to unplug your brain from cable news because it is decaying your capacity to understand reality, slap yourself in the face, touch some grass, topple your world view to pieces and begin over again from the standpoint that human life, all human life, is precious and that the many are never responsible for the actions of the one.
Ukraine is a war, it is modern imperialism, an army invades a country and an another army fights to repel the invasion.
Tell that to the people of Bucha, of Lyman, of Maruipol.
If you think the Palestinian Genocide in Gaza is a war you need to unplug your brain from cable news because it is decaying your capacity to understand reality, slap yourself in the face, touch some grass,
Those are YOUR words not mine. Keep your strawman to yourself.
and begin over again from the standpoint that human life, all human life, is precious and that the many are never responsible for the actions of the one.
No mention of Xinjiang? Or was that just a war to you? Which army was defending the Uyghur people?
Tell that to the people of Bucha, of Lyman, of Maruipol.
Ok, not sure what this has to do with them but sure. If they are curious I will point out that this is not in fact a war, not even close.
….and stop trying to sidetrack this conversation, other genocides and atrocities existing has no bearing on my outrage over a genocide the US is directly enabling right now.
How dare you use whataboutism for genocides as if bringing up one makes another less awful, what a repulsive and cynical way to see the world.
Which is stupid because Trump wants to nuke Gaza.
I hope it sticks also. Regardless of success, it puts Biden in direct oversight of negotiations and circumvents the State Department. His restored sanctions on Israel’s expansion leave Netanyahu with no requests other than hostage return and ceasing inbound attacks. If they fail the ceasefire over desire for retribution or expansion, Biden has a first hand account of justification for amendment of support without challenge from Congress.
There’s enough time for the propagando machine to pump out a bunch of stories about how he has saved the palestinians, so it could work with the average voter’s goldfish memory.
I’m sure you and the other shills on lemmy.ml will be disappointed if you don’t get Trump elected again.
Axios seems to have some more details in this article:
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/israel-gaza-hostage-ceasefire-deal-confirms-biden
Basically the deal is a temporary cease fire that would then allow negotiations for a full ceasefire after that. It’s a gamble, but the US seems to think that if they can get the conflict to a very low grade state, they can convince the Israeli’s not to go back in. In a vacuum this isn’t a terrible strategy, but there is broad public support for the war in Israel and the ruling coalition knows their days are numbered if there is no war. Even a temporary ceasefire is better than nothing though.
It’s not something the Palestinian public can accept. Give over ALL your leverage in exchange for a temporary deal that has no incentive to prevent a resumption of war, no quantifiable guarantees of aid or allowing people to return to their homes, or advance to Two State solution? To say nothing of the West Bank pogroms and Al Aqsa incursions that triggered the Oct 7 reprisal attack in the first place.
There’s a reason Hamas originally rejected the Israeli offer; it was insultingly bad and only benefited Israel. That’s why the original offer argued over “ceasefire” versus “sustainable calm,” whatever that means.
A ceasefire is just kicking the can down the road until Hamas rearms and breaks it again. it’s literally worse than nothing because it solves nothing and it undoes all the progress Israel has achieved in securing Gaza from the terrorist group Hamas.
The US should be calling for the unconditional surrender of Hamas and for the return of all the hostages and/or their remains, anything less is just kowtowing to Islamic terrorism.
I’m pretty doubtful that much progress has been made to destroy Hamas. They use Israeli unexploded ordinance to make bombs which they now have more than they know what to do with, and they couldn’t ask for a better recruiting tool than this war. At a certain point you have to be realistic about the situation and realize they will have to deal with Hamas in negotiations.
The US already calls for that. And Netanyahu has said repeatedly that even if Hamas returns every hostage and surrenders the war will not end.
Kicking the can down the road in Gaza has been Israeli policy for over a decade. The strategy is called “mowing the grass”. The idea being you can destroy the terrorist of the week’s tactical ability to strike and buy Israel a few years of peace. Repeat this cycle every few years until ???, then magically resolve the issue.
This failed catastrophically on October 7, because the typical cycle of Gazan attack happened to allign with a catastrophic security failure on the part of Israel.
The question remains: what comes next. The US’s complaint from October 8 on has been that Israel has no day-after plan. Without a day after plan, all that destroying Hamas will accomplish is have the next round be conducted by a terrorist group not called Hamas.
Every tactical move Israel makes today harms its strategic position for the day after plan. At the beginning of the war, some strategic concessions were needed to adress the very real tactical concerns. But there are massively diminishing returns.
Keep in mind Israel has not formally accepted it yet nor stopped the bombings and raids.
Right now this is all background stuff being reported on. Netanyahu is being pressured in both directions; Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have said they will leave his coalition if he accepts a ceasefire, which means elections and prosecution. Turning down the offer will make Israel look even worse to the international public and cause him deep problems with US.
Opposition leader Lapid has indicated that he intends to support Netenyahu if his coalition falls apart due to the deal. Of course, such transactional support offers tend to be fical, and Netanyahu needs perpetual support in order to avoid jail on corruption charges.
Unfourtuantly, such a realignment (or, at least the threat of one) to a more centrist coalition is the only plausible path to a deal.
Some more context from a BBC article
But Yair Lapid, one of Israel’s most influential opposition politicians, was quick to offer his backing to the embattled prime minister. His Yesh Atid (There is a future) party hold 24 seats. He said the prime minister “has our safety net for a hostage deal if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich leave the government”.
And how is this framework any different from the other dozen deals Israel has committed to with Biden but not fulfilled?
Because Hamas actually agreed to it as well.
Hamas has agreed to deals before as well. I swear they release a similar headline every two weeks, then Israel goes back to murder everything mode.
Hamas proposed deals that Israel has not agreed to, and vice versa. The previous agreements have been deemed inequitable by the opposition.
Biden proposed the ceasefire two days ago. Netanyahu agreed, then Hamas agreed, then Netanyahu backpedaled. Now he’s back on board. It appears to be happening this time.
The current ceasefire proposal is literally the same one that Hamas has proposed a month ago lol
You shouldn’t be downvoted. It is confusing.
Because it’s vague enough to not accomplish anything once hostages are exchanged
Fucking terrorists
